UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Quarter Finals & Playoffs

So having spent some of my spare time improving my software to predict matches without needing to interact with it, here's the predictions for the UEFA Nations League Quarter Finals and playoff matches.

The "number" columns are:

• importance (25 for Quarter Finals, 15 for playoffs)
• win (1)/draw (X)/loss (2)
• expected result (FIFA)
• points for team 1 win (invert for loss points for team 2)
• points for team 1 draw (invert for draw points for team 2)
• points for team 1 loss (invert for win points for team 2)
• if applicable, points for penalty win team 1
• if applicable, points for penalty win team 2

League A

2025-03-20 NED - ESP UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 2  0.40  15.00   2.50 -10.00

2025-03-23 ESP - NED UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 1  0.62   9.54  -2.96 -15.46   3.29   9.21

Predicted winner: Spain

2025-03-20 CRO - FRA UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 2  0.34  16.40   3.90  -8.60

2025-03-23 FRA - CRO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 1  0.67   8.23  -4.27 -16.77   1.98  10.52

Predicted Winner: France

2025-03-20 DEN - POR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 2  0.36  15.88   3.38  -9.12

2025-03-23 POR - DEN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 1  0.65   8.72  -3.78 -16.28   2.47  10.03

Predicted Winner: Portugal

2025-03-20 ITA - GER UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 X  0.53  11.84  -0.66 -13.16

2025-03-23 GER - ITA UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     25 X  0.47  13.13   0.63 -11.87   6.88   5.62

Predicted Winner: Italy (on Penalties)

League A/B Promotion/Relegation

2025-03-20 TUR - HUN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 X  0.52   7.22  -0.28  -7.78

2025-03-23 HUN - TUR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 X  0.48   7.77   0.27  -7.23   4.02   3.48

Predicted Winner: Türkiye (on penalties) => Türkiye promoted to League A, Hungary relegated to League B

2025-03-20 UKR - BEL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 2  0.33  10.06   2.56  -4.94

2025-03-23 BEL - UKR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 1  0.68   4.81  -2.69 -10.19   1.06   6.44

Predicted Winner: Belgium => Belgium remain in League A, Ukraine remain in League B

2025-03-20 AUT - SRB UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 1  0.57   6.42  -1.08  -8.58

2025-03-23 SRB - AUT UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 2  0.42   8.76   1.26  -6.24   5.01   2.49

Predicted Winner: Austria => Austria promoted to League A, Serbia relegated to League B

2025-03-20 GRE - SCO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 X  0.51   7.36  -0.14  -7.64

2025-03-23 SCO - GRE UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 X  0.49   7.63   0.13  -7.37   3.88   3.62

Predicted Winner: Greece (on penalties) => Greece promoted to League A, Scotland relegated to League B

League B/C Promotion/Relegation

2025-03-20 KVX - ISL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 2  0.37   9.40   1.90  -5.60

2025-03-23 ISL - KVX UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 1  0.64   5.45  -2.05  -9.55   1.70   5.80

Predicted Winner: Iceland => Iceland promoted to League B, Kosovo relegated to League C

2025-03-20 BUL - IRL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 2  0.41   8.91   1.41  -6.09

2025-03-23 IRL - BUL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 1  0.61   5.92  -1.58  -9.08   2.17   5.33

Predicted Winner: Ireland => Ireland remain in League B, Bulgaria remain in League C

2025-03-20 ARM - GEO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 2  0.37   9.51   2.01  -5.49

2025-03-23 GEO - ARM UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 1  0.64   5.35  -2.15  -9.65   1.60   5.90

Predicted Winner: Georgia => Georgia remain in League B, Armenia remain in League C

2025-03-20 SVK - SVN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 X  0.53   7.04  -0.46  -7.96

2025-03-23 SVN - SVK UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025     15 X  0.47   7.95   0.45  -7.05   4.20   3.30

Predicted Winner: Slovakia (on penalties) => Slovakia promoted to League B, Slovenia relegated to League C

So for the 2026 World Cup qualifying we should see Spain in Group E, Netherlands in Group G, Portugal in Group F, Denmark in Group C, France in Group D, Croatia in Group L, Italy in Group A and Germany in Group I.