So having spent some of my spare time improving my software to predict matches without needing to interact with it, here's the predictions for the UEFA Nations League Quarter Finals and playoff matches.
The "number" columns are:
- importance (25 for Quarter Finals, 15 for playoffs)
- win (1)/draw (X)/loss (2)
- expected result (FIFA)
- points for team 1 win (invert for loss points for team 2)
- points for team 1 draw (invert for draw points for team 2)
- points for team 1 loss (invert for win points for team 2)
- if applicable, points for penalty win team 1
- if applicable, points for penalty win team 2
League A
2025-03-20 NED - ESP UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 25 2 0.40 15.00 2.50 -10.00
2025-03-23 ESP - NED UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 25 1 0.62 9.54 -2.96 -15.46 3.29 9.21
Predicted winner: Spain
2025-03-20 CRO - FRA UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 25 2 0.34 16.40 3.90 -8.60
2025-03-23 FRA - CRO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 25 1 0.67 8.23 -4.27 -16.77 1.98 10.52
Predicted Winner: France
2025-03-20 DEN - POR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 25 2 0.36 15.88 3.38 -9.12
2025-03-23 POR - DEN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 25 1 0.65 8.72 -3.78 -16.28 2.47 10.03
Predicted Winner: Portugal
2025-03-20 ITA - GER UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 25 X 0.53 11.84 -0.66 -13.16
2025-03-23 GER - ITA UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 25 X 0.47 13.13 0.63 -11.87 6.88 5.62
Predicted Winner: Italy (on Penalties)
League A/B Promotion/Relegation
2025-03-20 TUR - HUN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.52 7.22 -0.28 -7.78
2025-03-23 HUN - TUR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.48 7.77 0.27 -7.23 4.02 3.48
Predicted Winner: Türkiye (on penalties) => Türkiye promoted to League A, Hungary relegated to League B
2025-03-20 UKR - BEL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.33 10.06 2.56 -4.94
2025-03-23 BEL - UKR UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.68 4.81 -2.69 -10.19 1.06 6.44
Predicted Winner: Belgium => Belgium remain in League A, Ukraine remain in League B
2025-03-20 AUT - SRB UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.57 6.42 -1.08 -8.58
2025-03-23 SRB - AUT UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.42 8.76 1.26 -6.24 5.01 2.49
Predicted Winner: Austria => Austria promoted to League A, Serbia relegated to League B
2025-03-20 GRE - SCO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.51 7.36 -0.14 -7.64
2025-03-23 SCO - GRE UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.49 7.63 0.13 -7.37 3.88 3.62
Predicted Winner: Greece (on penalties) => Greece promoted to League A, Scotland relegated to League B
League B/C Promotion/Relegation
2025-03-20 KVX - ISL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.37 9.40 1.90 -5.60
2025-03-23 ISL - KVX UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.64 5.45 -2.05 -9.55 1.70 5.80
Predicted Winner: Iceland => Iceland promoted to League B, Kosovo relegated to League C
2025-03-20 BUL - IRL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.41 8.91 1.41 -6.09
2025-03-23 IRL - BUL UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.61 5.92 -1.58 -9.08 2.17 5.33
Predicted Winner: Ireland => Ireland remain in League B, Bulgaria remain in League C
2025-03-20 ARM - GEO UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 2 0.37 9.51 2.01 -5.49
2025-03-23 GEO - ARM UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 1 0.64 5.35 -2.15 -9.65 1.60 5.90
Predicted Winner: Georgia => Georgia remain in League B, Armenia remain in League C
2025-03-20 SVK - SVN UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.53 7.04 -0.46 -7.96
2025-03-23 SVN - SVK UEFA Nat Lge 2024/2025 15 X 0.47 7.95 0.45 -7.05 4.20 3.30
Predicted Winner: Slovakia (on penalties) => Slovakia promoted to League B, Slovenia relegated to League C
So for the 2026 World Cup qualifying we should see Spain in Group E, Netherlands in Group G, Portugal in Group F, Denmark in Group C, France in Group D, Croatia in Group L, Italy in Group A and Germany in Group I.
DECISION OF THE FIFA DISCIPLINARY COMMITTEE
ReplyDeletehttps://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/779afe8f97d080c1/original/Salvadoran-Football-Association_27-06-2024.pdf
1. The Salvadoran Football Association is ordered to pay a fine to the amount of CHF 10,000 for having failed to comply with the relevant provisions of the FIFA Regulations on the Status and Transfer of Players as a result of its representative team having played three (3) matches during the March 2024 international window.
FIFA Regulations on the Status and Transfer of Players, February 2024 edition (RSTP).
https://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/6a0797ec77cbc02c/original/Regulations-on-the-Status-and-Transfer-of-Players-February-2024-edition.pdf
art. 1.4 of Annexe 1
4. An international window is defined as a period of nine days starting on a Monday morning and ending on Tuesday night the following week (subject to the temporary exceptions below), which is reserved for representative teams’activities. During any international window a maximum of two matches may be played by each representative team (subject to the temporary exceptions below), irrespective of whether these matches are qualifying matches for an international tournament or friendlies. The pertinent matches can be scheduled any day as from Wednesday during the international window, provided that a minimum of two full calendar days are left between two matches (e.g. Thursday/Sunday or Saturday/Tuesday).
…
During any international window a maximum of two matches may be played by each representative team.
El Salvador played 3 matches
On 20 March 2024, (the Bonaire Match or Match 1).
On 22 March 2024, (the Argentina Match or Match 2).
On 26 March 2024, (the Honduras Match or Match 3).
FIFA Regulations Governing International Matches
https://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/428d57940518eef/original/p0ppt4a5mrbb0zmvbl1g-pdf.pdf
1 Object
These regulations set forth the authorisations, notifications and other requirements for organising matches and/or competitions between teams belonging to different Members, or between teams belonging to the same Member but playing in a Third Country, or involving players or teams that are not affiliated to Members or provisional members of the Confederations as set forth in art. 83 par. 1 of the FIFA Statutes of 31 July 2013.
FIFA Statutes:
Players and teams affiliated to member associations or provisional members of the confederations may not play matches or make sporting contacts with players or teams that are not affiliated to member associations or provisional members of the confederations without the approval of FIFA.
Bonaire is not a FIFA member, but the match (El Salvador-Bonaire) is an international match (not International“A”Match).
I don't know why some other teams can play three matches.
for example, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh played 3 matches in the November 2021 window (Max. number of matches is two). All matches are included for calculation.
some teams also played 3 matches, but only two matches are included for calculation.
WOMEN's example
21-30 October 2024 - Type II window (available for all confederations except UEFA) (Max. number of matches is three).
https://digitalhub.fifa.com/m/2a11c4cc29021dd/original/Women-s-International-Match-Calendar-2023-2025_EN.pdf
Nepal women's national football team played 4 matches (against Maldives, Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh -2024 SAFF Women's Championship)
The rules also state that the first match cannot be held earlier than Wednesday. (The pertinent matches can be scheduled any day as from Wednesday during the international window)
But why do some teams play on Monday or Tuesday? No FIFA sanctions?
The coefficient of 2023–24 CONCACAF Nations League Quarter-finals is 15.
ReplyDeleteSo I think the coefficient of 2024–25 Uefa Nations League Quarter-finals is also 15.
The coefficient of 2024–25 CONCACAF Nations League Quarter-finals is 25. (Maybe it's because serve as 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup Preliminary round?)
I'm betting on 25, but we'll have to see. We haven't had a quarter final before in the UEFA Nations League so we essentially have to guess. I also expected the CONCACAF Gold Cup qualifying matches in the "play-in" round to get an importance of 25 for that exact reason, but it turned out to be 15, so your guess is as good as mine. Or were the play-in matches deemed qualifying matches for the qualification? For the CONCACAF Nations League quarter finals it was also the first time that losers of matches with an importance of 25 could lose points, which previously also wasn't the case. Anyway, it's all speculation for now until 3 April 2025.
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