So hereby posting simulations for the UEFA Nations League quarter finals and subsequent finals tournament that will be hosted by the winner of the Italy v Germany match-up.
Note that these are based on software, not on opinion!
Quarter Final Losers
Semi Finalist
3rd/4th Place Playoff
4th
3rd
Final
Runner-up
Winner
The one thing I can say about these numbers is that the current/latest FIFA ranking obviously has a major influence because this uses its "win expectancy". For each round there's a slight variation in the order of the countries, but it is clear that France and Spain are the favorites in terms of these numbers. That is also the case with the bookmakers, although with them Germany has better odds but that's also because the FIFA rankings take time to change, so don't take into account trends that there may be. We all know that Germany is getting stronger lately, and that Belgium is dropping down the rankings for example.
So this represents the start of the simulations for me. I'll see if my current software also works for the CONCACAF Nations League and any other tournaments, although it doesn't make sense yet to run anything too far in the future because there might still be variance in the rankings, and not all matches are currently known.
No comments:
Post a Comment