Probably the most interesting simulation for the qualifying for the 2026 World Cup is the CONMEBOL situation at the moment. So given that 60 of the 30 matches have been played so far, who is likely to qualify outright in one of the top 6 positions and which country is most likely to end up playing in the Intercontinental qualifying? Well, let's answer that straight away. With 10000 simulations, these are the predicted qualifiers if we trust the simulation based on current ranking points. A little word of warning though, this could still differ if any countries play any matches in between, but it is not likely to have any significant effect though... And before you ask, yes, this takes into account matches already played as well as Ecuador's 3 point deduction.
To qualify (directly), and likely position at end of qualifying
Argentina 100.00%
Uruguay 99.56%
Brazil 99.14%
Colombia 98.88%
Ecuador 95.99%
Paraguay 76.95%
-----------------
Venezuela 16.55% -> intercontinental playoffs
-----------------
Bolivia 7.64%
Chile 3.19%
Peru 2.10%
Not to qualify (directly)
Peru 97.90%
Chile 96.81%
Bolivia 92.36%
Venezuela 83.45%
Paraguay 23.05%
Ecuador 4.01%
Colombia 1.12%
Brazil 0.86%
Uruguay 0.44%
Argentina 0.00%
And here's the likelihood for finishing in a specific position:
First Place
Argentina 81.73%
Uruguay 9.60%
Brazil 3.87%
Colombia 3.43%
Ecuador 1.30%
Paraguay 0.07%
Venezuela 0.00%
Bolivia 0.00%
Chile 0.00%
Peru 0.00%
Second Place
Uruguay 36.80%
Brazil 22.54%
Colombia 18.90%
Argentina 11.91%
Ecuador 8.51%
Paraguay 1.31%
Venezuela 0.03%
Bolivia 0.00%
Chile 0.00%
Peru 0.00%
Third Place
Uruguay 26.97%
Brazil 25.86%
Colombia 24.88%
Ecuador 14.58%
Argentina 4.20%
Paraguay 3.31%
Venezuela 0.15%
Bolivia 0.05%
Chile 0.00%
Peru 0.00%
Fourth Place
Colombia 26.90%
Brazil 23.06%
Ecuador 23.45%
Uruguay 15.90%
Paraguay 7.97%
Argentina 1.68%
Venezuela 0.80%
Bolivia 0.17%
Chile 0.06%
Peru 0.01%
Fifth Place
Ecuador 33.60%
Colombia 19.04%
Brazil 18.11%
Paraguay 16.43%
Uruguay 8.23%
Venezuela 2.57%
Bolivia 1.03%
Argentina 0.46%
Chile 0.35%
Peru 0.18%
Sixth Place
Paraguay 47.86%
Ecuador 14.55%
Venezuela 13.00%
Bolivia 6.39%
Colombia 5.73%
Brazil 5.70%
Chile 2.78%
Uruguay 2.06%
Peru 1.91%
Argentina 0.02%
Seventh Place
Venezuela 36.82%
Bolivia 21.24%
Paraguay 17.24%
Chile 9.81%
Peru 9.13%
Ecuador 3.56%
Colombia 1.01%
Brazil 0.77%
Uruguay 0.42%
Argentina 0.00%
Eighth Place
Bolivia 30.03%
Venezuela 25.94%
Chile 22.02%
Peru 16.50%
Paraguay 4.90%
Ecuador 0.42%
Brazil 0.09%
Colombia 0.08%
Uruguay 0.02%
Argentina 0.00%
Ninth Place
Chile 31.93%
Peru 28.48%
Bolivia 24.75%
Venezuela 13.93%
Paraguay 0.85%
Colombia 0.03%
Ecuador 0.03%
Brazil 0.00%
Uruguay 0.00%
Argentina 0.00%
Tenth Place
Peru 43.79%
Chile 33.05%
Bolivia 16.34%
Venezuela 6.76%
Paraguay 0.06%
Ecuador 0.00%
Colombia 0.00%
Brazil 0.00%
Uruguay 0.00%
Argentina 0.00%
No comments:
Post a Comment