So what can we expect for the remainder of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers as they stand now (see also the separate detailed post specifically for CONMEBOL).
AFC
For each country I show the likelihood to qualify directly, to qualify for the fourth round, and not to qualify.
Group A
Iran 98.92% 1.08% 0.00%
Uzbekistan 67.96% 31.92% 0.12%
United Arab Emirates 27.82% 71.23% 0.95%
Qatar 5.21% 85.13% 9.66%
Kyrgyzstan 0.09% 7.54% 92.37%
North Korea 0.00% 3.10% 96.90%
Uzbekistan 67.96% 31.92% 0.12%
United Arab Emirates 27.82% 71.23% 0.95%
Qatar 5.21% 85.13% 9.66%
Kyrgyzstan 0.09% 7.54% 92.37%
North Korea 0.00% 3.10% 96.90%
Group B
South Korea 97.77% 2.23% 0.00%Iraq 71.31% 28.26% 0.43%
Jordan 27.59% 69.22% 3.19%
Oman 2.83% 66.93% 30.24%
Palestine 0.40% 20.28% 79.32%
Kuwait 0.10% 13.08% 86.82%
Group C
South Korea 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%Australia 59.43% 33.99% 6.58%
Saudi Arabia 16.14% 50.44% 33.42%
China 10.87% 40.31% 48.82%
Bahrain 9.68% 46.95% 43.37%
Indonesia 3.88% 28.31% 67.81%
CAF
For each country I show the likelihood to qualify directly, to be in contention to qualify for one of the four runner-up spots for the intercontinental playoffs (4 best runners-up, how these are to chosen to be confirmed by CAF/FIFA following Eritrea's withdrawal), and not to qualify.
Group A
Egypt 90.58% 8.05% 1.37%
Burkina Faso 6.86% 56.36% 36.78%
Guinea Bissau 1.65% 20.86% 77.49%
Sierra Leone 0.79% 13.00% 86.21%
Ethiopia 0.11% 1.59% 98.30%
Djibouti 0.01% 0.14% 99.85%
Burkina Faso 6.86% 56.36% 36.78%
Guinea Bissau 1.65% 20.86% 77.49%
Sierra Leone 0.79% 13.00% 86.21%
Ethiopia 0.11% 1.59% 98.30%
Djibouti 0.01% 0.14% 99.85%
Group B
Senegal 76.39% 18.02% 5.59%
Democratic Republic of Congo 15.76% 49.38% 5.37%
Sudan 7.68% 29.17% 63.15%
Togo 0.15% 2.55% 97.30%
Mauritania 0.02% 0.69% 99.29%
South Sudan 0.00% 0.19% 99.81%
Group C
South Africa 54.98% 24.62% 20.40%
Benin 18.39% 26.74% 54.87%
Nigeria 17.60% 28.05% 54.35%
Rwanda 6.99% 14.42% 78.59%
Lesotho 1.49% 3.82% 94.69%
Zimbabwe 0.55% 2.35% 97.10%
Group D
Cameroon 66.17% 22.06% 11.77%
Cape Verde Islands 20.10% 36.76% 43.14%
Angola 9.20% 25.05% 65.75%
Libya 4.38% 15.49% 80.13%
Lesotho 0.15% 0.57% 99.28%
Zimbabwe 0.00% 0.38% 99.93%
Group E
Morocco 98.00% 1.78% 0.22%
Tanzania 1.43% 60.57% 38.00%
Niger 0.46% 16.08% 83.46%
Zambia 0.06% 14.09% 85.85%
Congo 0.05% 7.48% 92.47%
Eritrea 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
Group F
Côte d’Ivoire 76.31% 20.42% 3.27%
Gabon 20.94% 58.86% 20.20%
Burundi 1.41% 7.64% 90.95%
Kenya 1.19% 10.56% 88.25%
Gambia 0.15% 2.49% 97.36%
Seychelles 0.00% 0.03% 99.97%
Group G
Algeria 71.61% 18.45% 9.94%
Mozambique 13.19% 32.19% 54.62%
Guinea 8.75% 27.23% 64.02%
Uganda 5.26% 17.55% 77.19%
Botswana 1.19% 4.55% 94.26%
Somalia 0.00% 0.03% 99.97%
Group H
Tunisia 77.30% 19.03% 3.67%
Equatorial Guinea 19.57% 55.77% 24.66%
Malawi 1.57% 11.42% 87.01%
Namibia 1.28% 11.76% 86.96%
Liberia 0.28% 1.99% 97.73%
Sâo Tomé and Principé 0.00% 0.03% 99.97%
Group I
Ghana 50.03% 25.50% 24.47%
Mali 21.17% 29.57% 49.26%
Comoros 19.82% 25.40% 54.78%
Madagascar 7.99% 16.08% 75.93%
Central African Republic 0.98% 3.45% 95.97%
Chad 0.01% 0.00% 99.99%
CONCACAF
We cannot say very much yet about eventual qualifiers yet as there's still one round to go after this before those are determined, but here's likelihood of countries that will make the next round from where group winners will qualify for the finals, and the likelihood of not making it to that round.
Group A
Honduras 98.82% 1.18%
Cayman Islands 42.06% 57.94%
Cuba 31.96% 68.04%
Bermuda 18.03% 81.97%
Antigua and Barbuda 9.13% 90.87%
Group B
Costa Rica 99.25% 0.75%
Trinidad and Tob 66.99% 33.01%
St. Kitts and Nevis 28.43% 71.57%
Grenada 5.23% 94.77%
Bahamas 0.10% 99.90%
Group C
Haiti 97.20% 2.80%
Curaçao 96.22% 3.78%
St. Lucia 4.42% 95.58%
Aruba 1.99% 98.01%
Barbados 0.17% 99.83%
Group D
Panama 98.79% 1.21%
Nicaragua 82.33% 17.67%
Guyana 18.86% 81.14%
Montserrat 0.02% 99.98%
Belize 0.00% 100.00%
Group E
Jamaica 95.31% 4.69%
Guatemala 84.88% 15.12%
Dominic Republic 19.81% 80.19%
Dominica 0.00% 100.00%
Br Virgin Islands 0.00% 100.00%
Group F
El Salvador 76.29% 23.71%
Surinam 72.86% 27.14%
Puerto Rico 49.53% 50.47%
St. Vincent and the Grenadines 1.07% 98.93%
Anguilla 0.25% 99.75%
CONMEBOL
See separate earlier post, but repeated here in the same format as the others. Again, this shows the likelihood to qualify directly, to qualify for the intercontinental playoffs, and not to qualify.
Argentina 100.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Uruguay 99.56% 0.42% 0.44%
Brazil 99.14% 0.77% 0.86%
Colombia 98.88% 1.01% 1.12%
Ecuador 95.99% 3.56% 4.01%
Paraguay 76.95% 17.24% 23.05%
Venezuela 16.55% 36.82% 83.45%
Bolivia 7.64% 21.24% 92.36%
Chile 3.19% 9.81% 96.81%
Peru 2.10% 9.13% 97.90%
OFC
For each country I show the likelihood to qualify directly, to qualify for the intercontinental playoffs, and not to qualify.
New Zealand 51.85% 19.32% 28.83%
New Caledonia 17.64% 34.21% 48.15%
Tahiti 15.71% 32.44% 70.26%
Fiji 15.45% 14.03% 70.52%
New Caledonia 17.64% 34.21% 48.15%
Tahiti 15.71% 32.44% 70.26%
Fiji 15.45% 14.03% 70.52%
UEFA
Below I've only simulated groups so far where all teams are known. While I have predicted the 2024/2025 UEFA Nations League quarter finals in another post, I think the numbers will differ depending on which nation will eventually qualify. So I'll only predict those groups after the matches in March 2025. Again, for each country I show the likelihood to quality directly, to qualify for the playoffs, and not to qualify.
Group B*
Switzerland 48.69% 29.56% 21.75%
Sweden 30.26% 34.34% 35.40%
Slovenia 18.49% 27.89% 53.62%
Kosovo 2.56% 8.21% 89.23%
* group only starts in September 2025, so rankings can still change and therefore also these probabilities. Don't take this as definitive yet, it just gives an indication for now.
Group H
Austria 55.98% 29.90% 14.12%
Romania 32.63% 40.49% 26.88%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 9.77% 22.70% 67.53%
Cyprus 1.62% 6.75% 91.63%
San Marino 0.00% 0.16% 99.84%
Group J
Belgium 70.68% 22.17% 7.15%
Wales 21.79% 48.89% 29.32%
North Macedonia 6.49% 22.87% 70.64%
Kazakhstan 1.04% 5.98% 92.98%
Liechtenstein 0.00% 0.09% 99.91%
Group K
England 82.20% 14.96% 2.84%
Serbia 13.35% 53.29% 33.36%
Albania 4.26% 27.82% 49.86%
Latvia 0.15% 3.06% 96.79%
Andorra 0.04% 0.87% 99.09%
Qualifiers
So what does that mean in terms of qualifiers as they're currently predicted?
AFC (8)
1 Iran
2 Uzbekistan
3 South Korea
4 Iraq
5 Japan
6 Australia
7/8 Two from United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia and China (TBD).
CAF (9)
1 Egypt
2 Senegal
3 South Africa
4 Cameroon
5 Morocco
6 Côte d’Ivoire
7 Algeria
8 Tunisia
9 Ghana
2 Senegal
3 South Africa
4 Cameroon
5 Morocco
6 Côte d’Ivoire
7 Algeria
8 Tunisia
9 Ghana
CONCACAF (6)
1 United States
2 Mexico
3 Canada
4 Third Round Group A Winner (TBD)
5 Third Round Group B Winner (TBD)
6 Third Round Group C Winner (TBD)
CONMEBOL (6)
1 Argentina
2 Uruguay
3 Brazil
4 Colombia
5 Ecuador
6 Paraguay
OFC (1)
1 New Zealand
UEFA (16)
1 Group A Winner (TBD)
2 Switzerland
3 Group C Winner (TBD)
4 Group D Winner (TBD)
5 Group E Winner (TBD)
6 Group F Winner (TBD)
7 Group G Winner (TBD)
8 Austria
9 Group I Winner (TBD)
10 Belgium
11 England
12 Group L Winner (TBD)
13 Playoff winner (TBD)
14 Playoff winner (TBD)
15 Playoff winner (TBD)
16 Playoff winner (TBD)
Intercontinental Playoffs (2)
AFC: One from United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia and China.
CAF: One from Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of Congo, Benin, Cape Verde Islands, Tanzania, Gabon, Mozambique, Equatorial Guinea and Mali.
CONCACAF 1: TBD
CONCACAF 2: TBD
CONMEBOL: Venezuela
OFC: New Caledonia
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