2026 World Cup Qualifying Rest of the World 10000 Simulations

So what can we expect for the remainder of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers as they stand now (see also the separate detailed post specifically for CONMEBOL).

AFC

For each country I show the likelihood to qualify directly, to qualify for the fourth round, and not to qualify.

Group A

Iran                             98.92%    1.08%    0.00%
Uzbekistan                       67.96%   31.92%    0.12%
United Arab Emirates             27.82%   71.23%    0.95%
Qatar                             5.21%   85.13%    9.66%
Kyrgyzstan                        0.09%    7.54%   92.37%
North Korea                       0.00%    3.10%   96.90%

Group B

South Korea                      97.77%    2.23%    0.00%
Iraq                             71.31%   28.26%    0.43%
Jordan                           27.59%   69.22%    3.19%
Oman                              2.83%   66.93%   30.24%
Palestine                         0.40%   20.28%   79.32%
Kuwait                            0.10%   13.08%   86.82%

Group C

South Korea                     100.00%    0.00%    0.00%
Australia                        59.43%   33.99%    6.58%
Saudi Arabia                     16.14%   50.44%   33.42%
China                            10.87%   40.31%   48.82%
Bahrain                           9.68%   46.95%   43.37%
Indonesia                         3.88%   28.31%   67.81%

CAF

For each country I show the likelihood to qualify directly, to be in contention to qualify for one of the four runner-up spots for the intercontinental playoffs (4 best runners-up, how these are to chosen to be confirmed by CAF/FIFA following Eritrea's withdrawal), and not to qualify.

Group A

Egypt                            90.58%    8.05%    1.37%
Burkina Faso                      6.86%   56.36%   36.78%
Guinea Bissau                     1.65%   20.86%   77.49%
Sierra Leone                      0.79%   13.00%   86.21%
Ethiopia                          0.11%    1.59%   98.30%
Djibouti                          0.01%    0.14%   99.85%

Group B

Senegal                          76.39%   18.02%    5.59%

Democratic Republic of Congo     15.76%   49.38%    5.37%

Sudan                             7.68%   29.17%   63.15%

Togo                              0.15%    2.55%   97.30%

Mauritania                        0.02%    0.69%   99.29%

South Sudan                       0.00%    0.19%   99.81%

Group C

South Africa                     54.98%   24.62%   20.40%

Benin                            18.39%   26.74%   54.87%

Nigeria                          17.60%   28.05%   54.35%

Rwanda                            6.99%   14.42%   78.59%

Lesotho                           1.49%    3.82%   94.69%

Zimbabwe                          0.55%    2.35%   97.10%

Group D

Cameroon                         66.17%   22.06%   11.77%

Cape Verde Islands               20.10%   36.76%   43.14%

Angola                            9.20%   25.05%   65.75%

Libya                             4.38%   15.49%   80.13%

Lesotho                           0.15%    0.57%   99.28%

Zimbabwe                          0.00%    0.38%   99.93%

Group E

Morocco                          98.00%    1.78%    0.22%

Tanzania                          1.43%   60.57%   38.00%

Niger                             0.46%   16.08%   83.46%

Zambia                            0.06%   14.09%   85.85%

Congo                             0.05%    7.48%   92.47%

Eritrea                           0.00%    0.00%  100.00%

Group F

Côte d’Ivoire                    76.31%   20.42%    3.27%

Gabon                            20.94%   58.86%   20.20%

Burundi                           1.41%    7.64%   90.95%

Kenya                             1.19%   10.56%   88.25%

Gambia                            0.15%    2.49%   97.36%

Seychelles                        0.00%    0.03%   99.97%

Group G

Algeria                          71.61%   18.45%    9.94%

Mozambique                       13.19%   32.19%   54.62%

Guinea                            8.75%   27.23%   64.02%

Uganda                            5.26%   17.55%   77.19%

Botswana                          1.19%    4.55%   94.26%

Somalia                           0.00%    0.03%   99.97%

Group H

Tunisia                          77.30%   19.03%    3.67%

Equatorial Guinea                19.57%   55.77%   24.66%

Malawi                            1.57%   11.42%   87.01%

Namibia                           1.28%   11.76%   86.96%

Liberia                           0.28%    1.99%   97.73%

Sâo Tomé and Principé             0.00%    0.03%   99.97%

Group I

Ghana                            50.03%   25.50%   24.47%

Mali                             21.17%   29.57%   49.26%

Comoros                          19.82%   25.40%   54.78%

Madagascar                        7.99%   16.08%   75.93%

Central African Republic          0.98%    3.45%   95.97%

Chad                              0.01%    0.00%   99.99%

CONCACAF

We cannot say very much yet about eventual qualifiers yet as there's still one round to go after this before those are determined, but here's likelihood of countries that will make the next round from where group winners will qualify for the finals, and the likelihood of not making it to that round.

Group A

Honduras                         98.82%    1.18%

Cayman Islands                   42.06%   57.94%

Cuba                             31.96%   68.04%

Bermuda                          18.03%   81.97%

Antigua and Barbuda               9.13%   90.87%

Group B

Costa Rica                       99.25%    0.75%

Trinidad and Tob                 66.99%   33.01%

St. Kitts and Nevis              28.43%   71.57%

Grenada                           5.23%   94.77%

Bahamas                           0.10%   99.90%

Group C

Haiti                            97.20%    2.80%

Curaçao                          96.22%    3.78%

St. Lucia                         4.42%   95.58%

Aruba                             1.99%   98.01%

Barbados                          0.17%   99.83%

Group D

Panama                           98.79%    1.21%

Nicaragua                        82.33%   17.67%

Guyana                           18.86%   81.14%

Montserrat                        0.02%   99.98%

Belize                            0.00%  100.00%

Group E

Jamaica                          95.31%    4.69%

Guatemala                        84.88%   15.12%

Dominic Republic                 19.81%   80.19%

Dominica                          0.00%  100.00%

Br Virgin Islands                 0.00%  100.00%

Group F

El Salvador                      76.29%   23.71%

Surinam                          72.86%   27.14%

Puerto Rico                      49.53%   50.47%

St. Vincent and the Grenadines    1.07%   98.93%

Anguilla                          0.25%   99.75%

CONMEBOL

See separate earlier post, but repeated here in the same format as the others. Again, this shows the likelihood to qualify directly, to qualify for the intercontinental playoffs, and not to qualify.

Argentina                       100.00%    0.00%    0.00%

Uruguay                          99.56%    0.42%    0.44%   

Brazil                           99.14%    0.77%    0.86%

Colombia                         98.88%    1.01%    1.12%

Ecuador                          95.99%    3.56%    4.01%

Paraguay                         76.95%   17.24%   23.05%

Venezuela                        16.55%   36.82%   83.45%

Bolivia                           7.64%   21.24%   92.36%

Chile                             3.19%    9.81%   96.81%

Peru                              2.10%    9.13%   97.90%

OFC

For each country I show the likelihood to qualify directly, to qualify for the intercontinental playoffs, and not to qualify.

New Zealand                      51.85%   19.32%   28.83%
New Caledonia                    17.64%   34.21%   48.15%
Tahiti                           15.71%   32.44%   70.26%
Fiji                             15.45%   14.03%   70.52%

UEFA

Below I've only simulated groups so far where all teams are known. While I have predicted the 2024/2025 UEFA Nations League quarter finals in another post, I think the numbers will differ depending on which nation will eventually qualify. So I'll only predict those groups after the matches in March 2025. Again, for each country I show the likelihood to quality directly, to qualify for the playoffs, and not to qualify.

Group B*

Switzerland                      48.69%   29.56%   21.75%

Sweden                           30.26%   34.34%   35.40%

Slovenia                         18.49%   27.89%   53.62%

Kosovo                            2.56%    8.21%   89.23%

* group only starts in September 2025, so rankings can still change and therefore also these probabilities. Don't take this as definitive yet, it just gives an indication for now.

Group H

Austria                          55.98%   29.90%   14.12%

Romania                          32.63%   40.49%   26.88%

Bosnia and Herzegovina            9.77%   22.70%   67.53%

Cyprus                            1.62%    6.75%   91.63%

San Marino                        0.00%    0.16%   99.84%

Group J

Belgium                          70.68%   22.17%    7.15%

Wales                            21.79%   48.89%   29.32%

North Macedonia                   6.49%   22.87%   70.64%

Kazakhstan                        1.04%    5.98%   92.98%

Liechtenstein                     0.00%    0.09%   99.91%

Group K

England                          82.20%   14.96%    2.84%

Serbia                           13.35%   53.29%   33.36%

Albania                           4.26%   27.82%   49.86%

Latvia                            0.15%    3.06%   96.79%

Andorra                           0.04%    0.87%   99.09%

Qualifiers

So what does that mean in terms of qualifiers as they're currently predicted?

AFC (8)

1   Iran

2   Uzbekistan

3   South Korea

4   Iraq

5   Japan

6   Australia

7/8 Two from United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia and China (TBD).

CAF (9)

1  Egypt
2  Senegal
3  South Africa
4  Cameroon
5  Morocco
6  Côte d’Ivoire
7  Algeria
8  Tunisia
9  Ghana

CONCACAF (6)

1  United States

2  Mexico

3  Canada

4  Third Round Group A Winner (TBD)

5  Third Round Group B Winner (TBD)

6  Third Round Group C Winner (TBD)

CONMEBOL (6)

1  Argentina

2  Uruguay

3  Brazil

4  Colombia

5  Ecuador

6  Paraguay

OFC (1)

1  New Zealand

UEFA (16)

1  Group A Winner (TBD)

2  Switzerland

3  Group C Winner (TBD)

4  Group D Winner (TBD)

5  Group E Winner (TBD)

6  Group F Winner (TBD)

7  Group G Winner (TBD)

8  Austria

9  Group I Winner (TBD)

10 Belgium

11 England

12 Group L Winner (TBD)

13 Playoff winner (TBD)

14 Playoff winner (TBD)

15 Playoff winner (TBD)

16 Playoff winner (TBD)

Intercontinental Playoffs (2)

AFC:        One from United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan, Oman, Saudi Arabia and China.

CAF:        One from Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of Congo, Benin, Cape Verde Islands, Tanzania, Gabon, Mozambique, Equatorial Guinea and Mali.

CONCACAF 1: TBD

CONCACAF 2: TBD

CONMEBOL:   Venezuela

OFC:        New Caledonia

2026 World Cup Qualifying CONMEBOL 10000 Simulations

Probably the most interesting simulation for the qualifying for the 2026 World Cup is the CONMEBOL situation at the moment. So given that 60 of the 30 matches have been played so far, who is likely to qualify outright in one of the top 6 positions and which country is most likely to end up playing in the Intercontinental qualifying? Well, let's answer that straight away. With 10000 simulations, these are the predicted qualifiers if we trust the simulation based on current ranking points. A little word of warning though, this could still differ if any countries play any matches in between, but it is not likely to have any significant effect though... And before you ask, yes, this takes into account matches already played as well as Ecuador's 3 point deduction.

To qualify (directly), and likely position at end of qualifying

Argentina 100.00%

Uruguay    99.56%

Brazil     99.14%

Colombia   98.88%

Ecuador    95.99%

Paraguay   76.95%

-----------------

Venezuela  16.55% -> intercontinental playoffs

-----------------

Bolivia     7.64%

Chile       3.19%

Peru        2.10%

Not to qualify (directly)

Peru       97.90%

Chile      96.81%

Bolivia    92.36%

Venezuela  83.45%

Paraguay   23.05%

Ecuador     4.01%

Colombia    1.12%

Brazil      0.86%

Uruguay     0.44%

Argentina   0.00%

And here's the likelihood for finishing in a specific position:

First Place

Argentina  81.73%

Uruguay     9.60%

Brazil      3.87%

Colombia    3.43%

Ecuador     1.30%

Paraguay    0.07%

Venezuela   0.00%

Bolivia     0.00%

Chile       0.00%

Peru        0.00%

Second Place

Uruguay    36.80%

Brazil     22.54%

Colombia   18.90%

Argentina  11.91%

Ecuador     8.51%

Paraguay    1.31%

Venezuela   0.03%

Bolivia     0.00%

Chile       0.00%

Peru        0.00%

Third Place

Uruguay   26.97%

Brazil    25.86%

Colombia  24.88%

Ecuador   14.58%

Argentina  4.20%

Paraguay   3.31%

Venezuela  0.15%

Bolivia    0.05%

Chile      0.00%

Peru       0.00%

Fourth Place

Colombia   26.90%

Brazil     23.06%

Ecuador    23.45%

Uruguay    15.90%

Paraguay    7.97%

Argentina   1.68%

Venezuela   0.80%

Bolivia     0.17%

Chile       0.06%

Peru        0.01%

Fifth Place

Ecuador    33.60%

Colombia   19.04%

Brazil     18.11%

Paraguay   16.43%

Uruguay     8.23%

Venezuela   2.57%

Bolivia     1.03%

Argentina   0.46%

Chile       0.35%

Peru        0.18%

Sixth Place

Paraguay   47.86%

Ecuador    14.55%

Venezuela  13.00%

Bolivia     6.39%

Colombia    5.73%

Brazil      5.70%

Chile       2.78%

Uruguay     2.06%

Peru        1.91%

Argentina   0.02%

Seventh Place

Venezuela  36.82%

Bolivia    21.24%

Paraguay   17.24%

Chile       9.81%

Peru        9.13%

Ecuador     3.56%

Colombia    1.01%

Brazil      0.77%

Uruguay     0.42%

Argentina   0.00%

Eighth Place

Bolivia    30.03%

Venezuela  25.94%

Chile      22.02%

Peru       16.50%

Paraguay    4.90%

Ecuador     0.42%

Brazil      0.09%

Colombia    0.08%

Uruguay     0.02%

Argentina   0.00%

Ninth Place

Chile      31.93%

Peru       28.48%

Bolivia    24.75%

Venezuela  13.93%

Paraguay    0.85%

Colombia    0.03%

Ecuador     0.03%

Brazil      0.00%

Uruguay     0.00%

Argentina   0.00%

Tenth Place

Peru       43.79%

Chile      33.05%

Bolivia    16.34%

Venezuela   6.76%

Paraguay    0.06%

Ecuador     0.00%

Colombia    0.00%

Brazil      0.00%

Uruguay     0.00%

Argentina   0.00%

2024/2025 CONCACAF Nations League 10000 Simulations

So for the CONCACAF Nations League it's a bit simpler, as there's just semis, a 3rd/4th place playoff and a final. No real surprises here, but again, neither the United States nor Mexico are in top form recently, so certainly chances for Canada and even Panama to upset the balance. Here's the numbers:

Fourth Place

Panama        35.28%
Canada        33.09%

Mexico        17.77%

United States 13.86%

Third Place

Panama        28.58%
Canada        28.00%

United States 22.28%

Mexico        21.14%

Final

United States 63.86%

Mexico        61.09%

Canada        38.91%

Panama        36.14%

Runner-up

Mexico        30.62%

United States 26.41%

Canada        22.17%

Panama        20.80%

Winner

United States 37.45%

Mexico        30.47%

Canada        16.74%

Panama        15.34%

2024/2025 UEFA Nations League 10000 Simulations

So hereby posting simulations for the UEFA Nations League quarter finals and subsequent finals tournament that will be hosted by the winner of the Italy v Germany match-up.

Note that these are based on software, not on opinion!

Quarter Final Losers

Croatia     67.20%

Denmark     65.58%

Netherlands 61.18%

Germany     54.37%

Italy       45.63%

Spain       38.82%

Portugal    34.42%

France      32.80%

Semi Finalist

France      67.20%

Portugal    65.58%

Spain       61.18%

Italy       54.37%

Germany     45.63%

Netherlands 38.82%

Denmark     34.42%

Croatia     32.80%

3rd/4th Place Playoff

Portugal    32.35%

France      31.52%

Spain       27.84%

Italy       25.13%

Germany     21.51%

Denmark     21.01%

Netherlands 20.76%

Croatia     19.88%

Fourth Place

Portugal    17.29%

Denmark     13.85%

Italy       13.00%

France      12.74%

Germany     11.74%

Spain       10.81%

Croatia     10.72%

Netherlands  9.85%

Third Place

France      18.78%

Spain       17.03%

Portugal    15.06%

Italy       12.13%

Netherlands 10.91%

Germany      9.77%

Croatia      9.16%

Denmark      7.16%

Final

France      35.68%

Spain       33.34%

Portugal    33.23%

Italy       29.24%

Germany     24.12%

Netherlands 18.06%

Denmark     13.41%

Croatia     12.92%

Runner-up

Portugal    18.11%

Italy       15.38%

France      14.33%

Spain       13.87%

Germany     13.53%

Denmark      9.17%

Netherlands  8.47%

Croatia      7.14%

Winner

France      21.35%

Spain       19.47%

Portugal    15.12%

Italy       13.86%

Germany     10.59%

Netherlands  9.59%

Croatia      5.78%

Denmark      4.24%

The one thing I can say about these numbers is that the current/latest FIFA ranking obviously has a major influence because this uses its "win expectancy". For each round there's a slight variation in the order of the countries, but it is clear that France and Spain are the favorites in terms of these numbers. That is also the case with the bookmakers, although with them Germany has better odds but that's also because the FIFA rankings take time to change, so don't take into account trends that there may be. We all know that Germany is getting stronger lately, and that Belgium is dropping down the rankings for example.

So this represents the start of the simulations for me. I'll see if my current software also works for the CONCACAF Nations League and any other tournaments, although it doesn't make sense yet to run anything too far in the future because there might still be variance in the rankings, and not all matches are currently known.

Simulations and Penalties...

A belated Happy New Year to everyone. So as avid readers of this blog will know, I have been working on simulating tournaments or parts of them in the past few weeks and I'm very close to publishing this. I ran several 10000 iteration simulations given Ed's hints he gave on this page: http://www.football-rankings.info/2020/12/simulation-of-scheduled-football-matches.html over the weekend and the results are interesting. One thing that wasn't mentioned in the calculations but was mentioned in the comments below it was what to do with penalty shoot-outs where these are needed. Confusingly the conversation was between Ed and Ed. So before reading these comments I started thinking that I wanted to work out a better model than what I had assumed initially, that the higher-ranked team at the time of the match (working out changes in points for each match rather than using the FIFA ranking from before the tournament) would also win the match on penalties. This of course renders a winner, but certainly isn't totally representative because as "Ed" (not the Ed who ran the site) pointed out, this skews the results perhaps by as much as 5%. Actually, yesterday and today I analyzed all penalty shoot-out matches and came up with the following.

Considering all matches for which we have a FIFA ranking (from July 1993) which have required penalty shootouts, 508 to be exact, 53.5% were won by the higher-ranked team. This increases to 60.2% (123 matches) if we actually only look at matches following the 2018 FIFA ranking revamp which started using the more credible ELO ratings. While these numbers perhaps aren't enough to base statistical models on, they do show that there is a significant likelihood that the "better" team will win a penalty shootout. Ed (the one who ran the site) worked out that 56.9% were won by the better team.

I also wanted to look at whether removing friendly matches or matches played in very minor tournaments like the King's Cup or Carlsberg Cup made a difference. For this we have 355 matches with 53.0% being won by the higher-ranked team, and 56.9% being won by the higher-ranked team using only matches played following the 2018 revamp (102 matches).

Then I also looked at whether there was any difference between teams playing at home or when the matches was played at a neutral venue, because I think if we looked at that as well it would make for a more accurate model. So for neutral matches (including the friendly and minor tournaments matches), the numbers are 57.9% since 1993, and 62.0% since 2018.

The most interesting numbers came from the matches where a home team was involved. For these, the higher-ranked team only won 48.2% considering all matches, with the lower-ranked team therefore winning 51.8% of the time. That's not significant in itself, but differs quite substantially considering all or just the neutral matches. Perhaps this can be attributed to the added pressure of performing in front of your home crowd which makes missing even more significant. Those were numbers though for all matches since 1993, a time period when the rankings weren't considered to be very good, so we should take that with a pinch of salt. For the numbers for matches since the 2018 ranking took effect, the results are 56.8% for the higher-ranked home team, 43.2% for the lower-ranked home team.

So in the next few days I'll consider what I'll do for the matches requiring penalties, and then I should be able publish my first simulations, probably first for the UEFA Nations League quarter finals which I currently use to simulate with, and the CONCACAF Nations League.

So watch this space!