2024/2025 UEFA Nations League 10000 Simulations (update 21 March 2025)

Hi all, so who saw that all coming? Lots of interesting results. So what does it mean?

Quarter Finals

Quarter Final Losers

France      78.00%

Italy       73.89%

Netherlands 63.47%

Portugal    58.81%

Denmark     41.19%

Spain       36.53%

Germany     26.11%

Croatia     22.00%

Semi Finalist

Croatia     78.00%

Germany     73.89%

Spain       63.47%

Denmark     58.81%

Portugal    41.19%

Netherlands 36.53%

Italy       26.11%

France      22.00%

3rd/4th Place Playoff

Croatia     48.20%

Denmark     35.18%

Germany     34.96%

Spain       24.65%

Portugal    18.31%

Netherlands 16.97%

Italy       11.55%

France      10.18%

Fourth Place

Croatia     23.96%

Denmark     22.11%

Germany     19.32%

Portugal     9.19%

Spain        8.71%

Netherlands  7.25%

Italy        6.16%

France       3.30%

Third Place

Croatia     24.24%

Spain       15.94%

Germany     15.64%

Denmark     13.07%

Netherlands  9.72%

Portugal     9.12%

France       6.88%

Italy        5.39%

Final

Germany     38.93%

Spain       38.82%

Croatia     29.80%

Denmark     23.63%

Portugal    22.88%

Netherlands 19.56%

Italy       14.56%

France      11.82%

Runner Up

Germany     22.50%

Denmark     15.11%

Croatia     15.04%

Spain       14.01%

Portugal    12.32%

Netherlands  8.78%

Italy        8.11%

France       4.13%

Winner

Spain       24.81%

Germany     16.43%

Croatia     14.76%

Netherlands 10.78%

Portugal    10.56%

Denmark      8.52%

France       7.69%

Italy        6.45%

Playoffs

League A/B

Türkiye v Hungary (aggregate 3-1)

Türkiye  89.34%

Hungary  10.66%

Ukraine v Belgium (aggregate 3-1)

Ukraine  76.60%

Belgium  23.40%

Austria v Serbia (aggregate 1-1)

Austria  53.45%

Serbia   46.55%

Greece v Scotland (aggregate 0-1)

Greece   25.74%

Scotland 74.26%

League B/C

Kosovo v Iceland (aggregate 2-1)

Kosovo   58.97%

Iceland  41.03%

Bulgaria v Ireland (aggregate 1-2)

Bulgaria 17.24%

Ireland  82.76%

Armenia v Georgia (aggregate 0-3)

Armenia   1.20%

Georgia  98.80%

Slovakia v Slovenia (aggregate 0-0)

Slovakia 50.67%

Slovenia 49.33%