Wow! What a night that was! Can't remember ever seeing that many goals in a set of 4 quarter finals! Are the teams THAT good offensively, or THAT bad defensively? I think a bit of both! So what does it mean for the 2026 World Cup Qualifying UEFA? I know this still depends on some results in the next couple of days, and also potentially some friendlies, but below is how things stands right now using the rankings from December 2024. NOTE: this will still potentially change a bit following the published April 2025 ranking at which stage I'll post a new simulation using that ranking. Right now my software doesn't take into account that ranking yet.
Not too many surprises of course, given that this is effectively based on the FIFA ranking after all, which is pretty static over a short period of time, so doesn't favor teams that are achieving above or below their ranking currently. Romania fans will be thinking that perhaps they've already blown it after day 1, but given yesterday's results I think anything is still possible that an away win in the reverse fixture won't solve.
And yeah I know, you'd like to see the results of the 1 simulation of 10000 where San Marino, Andorra and Gibraltar actually won their respective groups right? ;-) Yeah well, "Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and again", or take the fact that someone pretty much always wins the lottery! I think Norway and Türkiye will certainly fancy their chances, and the groups B, C and H are going to be close affairs. And write off the Scots at your peril. I think if they get a good start you never know, they'll be difficult to beat, even considering yesterday's result.
Below the % chance of winning the group, ending as runner-up, third, fourth, fifth, chances of at least getting a playoff spot (so winner + playoff), and the % chance of not qualifying.
Group A
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off NotQual
Germany 67.96% 22.85% 7.07% 2.12% 90.81% 9.19%
Slovakia 22.11% 41.79% 23.83% 12.27% 63.90% 36.10%
Northern Ireland 3.78% 16.51% 38.99% 40.72% 20.29% 79.71%
Luxembourg 6.15% 18.85% 30.11% 44.89% 25.00% 75.00%
Group B
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off NotQual
Switzerland 49.14% 29.18% 17.19% 4.49% 78.32% 21.68%
Sweden 30.00% 34.22% 25.92% 9.86% 64.22% 35.78%
Slovenia 18.23% 28.15% 36.00% 17.62% 46.38% 53.62%
Kosovo 2.63% 8.45% 20.89% 68.03% 11.08% 88.92%
Group C
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off NotQual
Denmark 50.56% 28.08% 17.15% 4.22% 78.64% 21.36%
Greece 24.66% 33.23% 30.73% 11.38% 57.89% 42.11%
Scotland 22.88% 32.02% 33.18% 11.92% 54.90% 45.10%
Belarus 1.90% 6.67% 18.94% 72.49% 8.57% 91.43%
Group D
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off NotQual
France 83.96% 13.63% 2.16% 0.25% 97.59% 2.41%
Ukraine 12.47% 55.93% 24.67% 6.93% 68.40% 31.60%
Iceland 3.14% 24.02% 49.59% 23.25% 27.16% 72.84%
Azerbaijan 0.43% 6.42% 23.58% 69.57% 6.85% 93.15%
Group E
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off NotQual
Spain 81.13% 15.17% 3.04% 0.66% 96.30% 3.70%
Türkiye 12.91% 49.19% 25.67% 12.23% 62.10% 37.90%
Georgia 3.75% 21.37% 38.94% 35.94% 25.12% 74.88%
Bulgaria 2.21% 14.27% 32.35% 51.17% 16.48% 83.52%
Group F
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off NotQual
Portugal 71.99% 20.94% 5.89% 1.18% 92.93% 7.07%
Hungary 18.49% 43.13% 27.92% 10.46% 61.62% 38.38%
Ireland 7.91% 26.32% 40.91% 24.86% 34.23% 65.77%
Armenia 1.61% 9.61% 25.28% 63.50% 11.22% 88.78%
Group G
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off NotQual
Netherlands 73.25% 21.00% 5.43% 0.30% 0.02% 94.25% 5.75%
Poland 19.81% 49.71% 27.35% 2.82% 0.31% 69.52% 30.48%
Finland 6.77% 27.69% 54.83% 9.57% 1.14% 34.46% 65.54%
Lithuania 0.15% 1.17% 9.64% 54.75% 32.29% 1.32% 98.68%
Malta 0.02% 0.43% 2.75% 32.56% 64.24% 0.45% 99.55%
Group H
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off NotQual
Austria 60.34% 23.51% 12.78% 3.30% 0.07% 83.85% 16.15%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 20.11% 35.51% 32.02% 12.05% 0.31% 55.62% 44.38%
Romania 17.40% 32.90% 36.20% 13.24% 0.26% 50.30% 49.70%
Cyprus 2.14% 8.08% 18.79% 67.87% 3.12% 10.22% 89.78%
San Marino 0.01% 0.00% 0.21% 3.54% 96.24% 0.01% 99.99%
Group I
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off NotQual
Italy 72.96% 22.12% 4.44% 0.43% 0.05% 95.08% 4.92%
Norway 22.21% 53.72% 19.72% 3.95% 0.40% 75.93% 24.07%
Israel 4.47% 20.73% 53.80% 17.09% 3.91% 25.20% 74.80%
Estonia 0.30% 2.50% 14.26% 49.53% 33.41% 2.80% 97.20%
Moldova 0.06% 0.93% 7.78% 29.00% 62.23% 0.99% 99.01%
Group J
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off NotQual
Belgium 67.02% 24.89% 7.12% 0.96% 0.01% 91.91% 8.09%
Wales 25.52% 49.23% 22.10% 3.09% 0.06% 74.75% 25.25%
North Macedonia 7.07% 22.87% 53.36% 16.31% 0.39% 29.94% 70.06%
Kazakhstan 0.39% 2.99% 16.95% 70.43% 9.24% 3.38% 96.62%
Liechtenstein 0.00% 0.02% 0.47% 9.21% 90.30% 0.02% 99.98%
Group K
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off NotQual
England 86.84% 11.91% 1.16% 0.09% 0.00% 97.75% 1.25%
Serbia 11.17% 57.68% 24.71% 5.70% 0.74% 68.85% 31.15%
Albania 1.73% 25.56% 50.38% 18.95% 3.38% 27.29% 72.71%
Latvia 0.25% 4.49% 21.10% 60.79% 13.37% 4.74% 95.26%
Andorra 0.01% 0.36% 2.65% 14.47% 82.51% 0.37% 99.63%
Group L
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off NotQual
Croatia 68.02% 24.26% 7.27% 0.44% 0.01% 92.28% 7.72%
Czechia 24.35% 49.03% 23.74% 2.75% 0.13% 73.38% 26.62%
Montenegro 7.44% 24.20% 52.88% 14.46% 1.02% 31.64% 68.36%
Faroe Islands 0.18% 2.43% 14.63% 64.43% 18.33% 2.61% 97.39%
Gibraltar 0.01% 0.08% 1.48% 17.92% 80.51% 0.09% 99.91%
I think everyone knows what that means who will qualify for the 2026 World Cup for UEFA, and who will get a playoff spot. While it would be fun to try and predict who will win those, I won't be doing that for a while as there's still way to many unknowns, so I'll leave that to guess between yourselves for now.
P.S. I changed the policy so that people can only comment with a valid Google username. While I think that's a bit restrictive, and I don't want to exclude anyone from commenting, I would like to know at least who I'm speaking with. I think everyone is pretty much free to create a Google id, even if you want to create an anonymous account.
Thanks for the updated projections Homer.
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