2026 World Cup Qualifying UEFA 10000 Simulations (update 24 March 2025) [Provisional pending April 2025 FIFA Ranking]

Wow! What a night that was! Can't remember ever seeing that many goals in a set of 4 quarter finals! Are the teams THAT good offensively, or THAT bad defensively? I think a bit of both! So what does it mean for the 2026 World Cup Qualifying UEFA? I know this still depends on some results in the next couple of days, and also potentially some friendlies, but below is how things stands right now using the rankings from December 2024. NOTE: this will still potentially change a bit following the published April 2025 ranking at which stage I'll post a new simulation using that ranking. Right now my software doesn't take into account that ranking yet.

Not too many surprises of course, given that this is effectively based on the FIFA ranking after all, which is pretty static over a short period of time, so doesn't favor teams that are achieving above or below their ranking currently. Romania fans will be thinking that perhaps they've already blown it after day 1, but given yesterday's results I think anything is still possible that an away win in the reverse fixture won't solve.

And yeah I know, you'd like to see the results of the 1 simulation of 10000 where San Marino, Andorra and Gibraltar actually won their respective groups right? ;-)  Yeah well, "Even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and again", or take the fact that someone pretty much always wins the lottery! I think Norway and Türkiye will certainly fancy their chances, and the groups B, C and H are going to be close affairs. And write off the Scots at your peril. I think if they get a good start you never know, they'll be difficult to beat, even considering yesterday's result.

Below the % chance of winning the group, ending as runner-up, third, fourth, fifth, chances of at least getting a playoff spot (so winner + playoff), and the % chance of not qualifying.

Update 2025-04-02 05:22 UTC: as "ted" rightfully pointed out, the "Pl-off" and "NotQual" percentages don't take into account the chances of qualifying via the playoffs, so take these numbers as qualifying for the play-off, or not qualifying for via the group, excluding qualifying as one of the best 2024/2025 UEFA Nations League A-D winners or league A runners-up.

Group A

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off NotQual

Germany                 67.96%  22.85%   7.07%   2.12%  90.81%   9.19%

Slovakia                22.11%  41.79%  23.83%  12.27%  63.90%  36.10%

Northern Ireland         3.78%  16.51%  38.99%  40.72%  20.29%  79.71%

Luxembourg               6.15%  18.85%  30.11%  44.89%  25.00%  75.00%

Group B

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off NotQual

Switzerland             49.14%  29.18%  17.19%   4.49%  78.32%  21.68%

Sweden                  30.00%  34.22%  25.92%   9.86%  64.22%  35.78%

Slovenia                18.23%  28.15%  36.00%  17.62%  46.38%  53.62%

Kosovo                   2.63%   8.45%  20.89%  68.03%  11.08%  88.92%

Group C

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off NotQual

Denmark                 50.56%  28.08%  17.15%   4.22%  78.64%  21.36%

Greece                  24.66%  33.23%  30.73%  11.38%  57.89%  42.11%

Scotland                22.88%  32.02%  33.18%  11.92%  54.90%  45.10%

Belarus                  1.90%   6.67%  18.94%  72.49%   8.57%  91.43%

Group D

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off NotQual

France                  83.96%  13.63%   2.16%   0.25%  97.59%   2.41%

Ukraine                 12.47%  55.93%  24.67%   6.93%  68.40%  31.60%

Iceland                  3.14%  24.02%  49.59%  23.25%  27.16%  72.84%

Azerbaijan               0.43%   6.42%  23.58%  69.57%   6.85%  93.15%

Group E

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off NotQual

Spain                   81.13%  15.17%   3.04%   0.66%  96.30%   3.70%

Türkiye                 12.91%  49.19%  25.67%  12.23%  62.10%  37.90%

Georgia                  3.75%  21.37%  38.94%  35.94%  25.12%  74.88%

Bulgaria                 2.21%  14.27%  32.35%  51.17%  16.48%  83.52%

Group F

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth  Pl-off NotQual

Portugal                71.99%  20.94%   5.89%   1.18%  92.93%   7.07%

Hungary                 18.49%  43.13%  27.92%  10.46%  61.62%  38.38%

Ireland                  7.91%  26.32%  40.91%  24.86%  34.23%  65.77%

Armenia                  1.61%   9.61%  25.28%  63.50%  11.22%  88.78%

Group G

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off NotQual

Netherlands             73.25%  21.00%   5.43%   0.30%   0.02%  94.25%   5.75%

Poland                  19.81%  49.71%  27.35%   2.82%   0.31%  69.52%  30.48%

Finland                  6.77%  27.69%  54.83%   9.57%   1.14%  34.46%  65.54%

Lithuania                0.15%   1.17%   9.64%  54.75%  32.29%   1.32%  98.68%

Malta                    0.02%   0.43%   2.75%  32.56%  64.24%   0.45%  99.55%

Group H

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off NotQual

Austria                 60.34%  23.51%  12.78%   3.30%   0.07%  83.85%  16.15%

Bosnia and Herzegovina  20.11%  35.51%  32.02%  12.05%   0.31%  55.62%  44.38%

Romania                 17.40%  32.90%  36.20%  13.24%   0.26%  50.30%  49.70%

Cyprus                   2.14%   8.08%  18.79%  67.87%   3.12%  10.22%  89.78%

San Marino               0.01%   0.00%   0.21%   3.54%  96.24%   0.01%  99.99%

Group I

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off NotQual

Italy                   72.96%  22.12%   4.44%   0.43%   0.05%  95.08%   4.92%

Norway                  22.21%  53.72%  19.72%   3.95%   0.40%  75.93%  24.07%

Israel                   4.47%  20.73%  53.80%  17.09%   3.91%  25.20%  74.80%

Estonia                  0.30%   2.50%  14.26%  49.53%  33.41%   2.80%  97.20%

Moldova                  0.06%   0.93%   7.78%  29.00%  62.23%   0.99%  99.01%

Group J

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off NotQual

Belgium                 67.02%  24.89%   7.12%   0.96%   0.01%  91.91%   8.09%

Wales                   25.52%  49.23%  22.10%   3.09%   0.06%  74.75%  25.25%

North Macedonia          7.07%  22.87%  53.36%  16.31%   0.39%  29.94%  70.06%

Kazakhstan               0.39%   2.99%  16.95%  70.43%   9.24%   3.38%  96.62%

Liechtenstein            0.00%   0.02%   0.47%   9.21%  90.30%   0.02%  99.98%

Group K

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off NotQual

England                 86.84%  11.91%   1.16%   0.09%   0.00%  97.75%   1.25%

Serbia                  11.17%  57.68%  24.71%   5.70%   0.74%  68.85%  31.15%

Albania                  1.73%  25.56%  50.38%  18.95%   3.38%  27.29%  72.71%

Latvia                   0.25%   4.49%  21.10%  60.79%  13.37%   4.74%  95.26%

Andorra                  0.01%   0.36%   2.65%  14.47%  82.51%   0.37%  99.63%

Group L

                        Winner  Run-up   Third  Fourth   Fifth  Pl-off NotQual

Croatia                 68.02%  24.26%   7.27%   0.44%   0.01%  92.28%   7.72%
Czechia                 24.35%  49.03%  23.74%   2.75%   0.13%  73.38%  26.62%
Montenegro               7.44%  24.20%  52.88%  14.46%   1.02%  31.64%  68.36%
Faroe Islands            0.18%   2.43%  14.63%  64.43%  18.33%   2.61%  97.39%
Gibraltar                0.01%   0.08%   1.48%  17.92%  80.51%   0.09%  99.91%

I think everyone knows what that means who will qualify for the 2026 World Cup for UEFA, and who will get a playoff spot. While it would be fun to try and predict who will win those, I won't be doing that for a while as there's still way to many unknowns, so I'll leave that to guess between yourselves for now.

P.S. I changed the policy so that people can only comment with a valid Google username. While I think that's a bit restrictive, and I don't want to exclude anyone from commenting, I would like to know at least who I'm speaking with. I think everyone is pretty much free to create a Google id, even if you want to create an anonymous account.