So I spent some time today to change my software to be able to predict future rankings beyond only the next one which it could already do. Below is a prediction (not from a simulation) for the (28?) November 2025 FIFA ranking if all (known) matches go as expected. From this we can then determine, following earlier simulation posts, what the seeding pots will likely look like.
NOTE 1: This ranking doesn't include matches from the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup, the draw for which will happen on 10 April, nor does it include matches from 2026 World Cup qualifying groups that are still to be determined, notably the AFC fourth round and the CONCACAF third round. With the "big three" in CONCACAF already qualified though, those tournaments are unlikely to affect the top or second seeding bracket.
NOTE 2: the "+/-" columns here refer to the changes from the (also) predicted (23?) October 2025 ranking. That ranking follows on from predicted (18?) September and 10 July 2025 rankings.
2 Spain 1886.50 0 8.85
3 France 1883.09 0 7.20
4 England 1844.01 0 9.76
5 Brazil 1798.25 0 0.00
6 Netherlands 1781.01 0 8.71
7 Portugal 1779.39 -1 7.29
8 Belgium 1766.80 0 2.84
9 Italy 1749.57 0 8.85
10 Germany 1747.84 0 10.22
11 Croatia 1729.21 0 6.49
12 Uruguay 1711.27 0 0.00
13 Morocco 1707.90 0 0.00
14 Colombia 1691.51 0 0.00
15 Switzerland 1670.53 1 13.57
16 Japan 1669.10 0 0.00
17 Denmark 1665.51 0 12.44
18 United States 1652.62 0 0.00
19 Mexico 1650.79 0 0.00
20 Iran 1648.88 0 0.00
21 Senegal 1646.63 0 0.00
22 Austria 1621.85 0 9.64
23 South Korea 1586.58 0 0.00
24 Ecuador 1574.99 0 0.00
25 Ukraine 1570.97 0 1.47
26 Türkiye 1561.46 0 0.35
27 Australia 1554.14 0 0.00
28 Sweden 1548.28 0 0.66
29 Serbia 1541.58 0 -2.50
30 Egypt 1538.15 0 0.00
31 Canada 1535.89 0 0.00
32 Wales 1535.04 2 10.65
33 Algeria 1529.76 0 0.00
34 Poland 1527.68 -2 -4.65
35 Panama 1524.44 0 0.00
36 Hungary 1523.24 3 15.55
37 Russia 1518.48 0 0.00
38 Côte d'Ivoire 1510.92 0 0.00
39 Norway 1510.69 -2 -2.67
40 Czechia 1499.61 0 1.75
41 Nigeria 1497.15 0 0.00
42 Slovakia 1493.96 0 -0.59
43 Tunisia 1491.75 0 0.00
44 Cameroon 1490.09 0 0.00
45 Greece 1487.73 2 6.61
46 Mali 1485.11 0 0.00
47 Scotland 1480.29 -2 -8.80
48 Romania 1478.11 1 11.12
49 Costa Rica 1468.50 0 0.00
50 Venezuela 1465.72 0 0.00
51 South Africa 1463.69 0 0.00
52 Peru 1457.57 0 0.00
53 Chile 1453.95 0 0.00
54 Paraguay 1452.54 0 0.00
55 Qatar 1448.25 0 0.00
55 Uzbekistan 1448.22 0 0.00
57 Slovenia 1446.28 -2 -3.36
58 Saudi Arabia 1418.66 0 0.00
59 Democratic Republic of Congo 1417.14 0 0.00
60 Iraq 1404.54 0 0.00
61 Jordan 1400.21 0 0.00
62 Ireland 1397.79 -2 -15.04
63 Jamaica 1397.11 0 0.00
64 Burkina Faso 1391.24 0 0.00
65 United Arab Emirates 1380.40 0 0.00
66 North Macedonia 1374.88 -1 -9.18
67 Georgia 1372.91 1 7.02
68 Albania 1370.91 -1 0.45
69 Cape Verde Islands 1352.39 0 0.00
70 Northern Ireland 1346.98 3 9.68
71 Ghana 1344.44 0 0.00
72 Honduras 1342.51 0 0.00
73 Finland 1342.15 0 4.67
74 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1335.24 -4 -16.25
75 Iceland 1328.84 0 0.70
76 Montenegro 1326.21 0 -1.32
77 Israel 1324.62 2 5.79
78 Oman 1323.60 0 0.00
79 Gabon 1320.44 0 0.00
80 El Salvador 1311.61 0 0.00
81 Guinea 1295.52 0 0.00
82 Haiti 1294.87 0 0.00
83 Zambia 1292.37 0 0.00
84 Angola 1291.93 0 0.00
85 Bolivia 1283.01 0 0.00
86 Bahrain 1280.06 0 0.00
87 Uganda 1277.84 0 0.00
88 Syria 1277.79 1 3.64
89 New Zealand 1276.87 0 0.00
90 Curaçao 1271.75 0 0.00
91 Equatorial Guinea 1269.54 0 0.00
92 China 1260.81 0 0.00
93 Thailand 1260.39 2 3.83
94 Benin 1259.26 0 0.00
95 Mozambique 1254.32 0 0.00
96 Bulgaria 1251.27 -4 -16.22
97 Tajikistan 1231.74 1 4.27
98 Trinidad and Tobago 1230.74 0 0.00
99 Palestine 1223.86 0 0.00
100 Vietnam 1213.64 3 5.07
101 Namibia 1210.83 0 0.00
102 Kyrgyzstan 1208.03 0 0.00
103 Luxembourg 1207.94 -5 -19.31
104 Tanzania 1206.82 0 0.00
105 Lebanon 1204.79 2 5.59
106 Kosovo 1203.72 -5 -10.88
107 Guatemala 1198.71 0 0.00
108 Belarus 1198.15 -4 -10.26
109 Comoros 1196.27 0 0.00
110 Kenya 1186.79 0 0.00
111 Mauritania 1182.51 0 0.00
112 Madagascar 1175.34 0 0.00
113 Armenia 1172.94 -1 -7.80
114 India 1166.93 1 6.27
115 Sudan 1162.72 0 0.00
116 Kazakhstan 1157.30 0 -2.24
117 Libya 1154.05 0 0.00
118 Zimbabwe 1153.10 0 0.00
119 Togo 1152.12 0 0.00
120 Sierra Leone 1149.17 0 0.00
121 Guinea-Bissau 1140.97 0 0.00
122 North Korea 1138.97 0 0.00
123 Malaysia 1134.28 4 8.08
124 Estonia 1131.34 -1 -5.01
125 Indonesia 1130.08 0 0.00
126 Gambia 1128.72 0 0.00
127 Azerbaijan 1125.48 -3 -9.37
128 Congo 1122.91 0 0.00
129 Niger 1120.66 0 0.00
130 Nicaragua 1120.46 0 0.00
131 Rwanda 1108.32 0 0.00
132 Cyprus 1105.55 -1 -2.91
133 Malawi 1102.49 0 0.00
134 Surinam 1099.25 0 0.00
135 Kuwait 1098.87 0 0.00
136 Turkmenistan 1091.18 3 10.00
137 Dominican Republic 1085.92 0 0.00
138 Central African Republic 1082.50 0 0.00
139 Faroe Islands 1080.74 -2 -1.97
140 Philippines 1078.81 3 10.41
141 Lithuania 1077.21 0 -1.59
142 Latvia 1076.54 -2 -3.68
143 Botswana 1071.82 0 0.00
144 St. Kitts and Nevis 1066.61 0 0.00
145 Burundi 1065.91 0 0.00
146 Liberia 1047.96 0 0.00
147 Solomon Islands 1045.58 0 0.00
148 Fiji 1043.44 0 0.00
149 New Caledonia 1039.55 0 0.00
150 Hong Kong 1038.10 0 -1.08
151 Yemen 1037.27 2 9.36
151 Guyana 1037.07 0 0.00
153 Ethiopia 1030.85 0 0.00
154 Lesotho 1020.57 0 0.00
155 Tahiti 1019.04 0 0.00
156 Afghanistan 1017.39 0 -0.65
157 Puerto Rico 1007.50 0 0.00
158 Antigua and Barbuda 1004.67 0 0.00
159 Moldova 1000.36 -2 -7.20
160 Eswatini 997.93 0 0.00
161 Singapore 995.04 0 1.08
162 Vanuatu 991.59 0 0.00
163 Myanmar 991.38 0 0.65
164 Bermuda 987.24 0 0.00
165 Cuba 980.63 0 0.00
166 St. Lucia 978.50 0 0.00
167 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 974.86 0 0.00
168 Maldives 970.23 -3 -10.41
169 Papua New Guinea 969.17 0 0.00
170 Taiwan 965.50 -2 -10.00
171 South Sudan 953.77 0 0.00
172 Grenada 953.46 0 0.00
173 Malta 947.04 -2 -7.14
174 Barbados 944.98 0 0.00
175 Andorra 937.17 0 -4.04
176 Nepal 925.60 0 -8.08
177 Belize 916.85 0 0.00
178 Cambodia 912.67 0 0.00
179 Montserrat 904.54 0 0.00
180 Mauritius 902.91 0 0.00
181 Chad 902.62 0 0.00
182 Dominica 901.07 0 0.00
183 Bhutan 884.63 0 -9.36
184 American Samoa 883.17 0 0.00
185 Mongolia 879.75 0 0.00
186 Cook Islands 877.53 0 0.00
187 Samoa 876.41 0 0.00
188 Bangladesh 869.10 0 -6.27
189 Brunei 868.96 0 -5.59
190 Macao 865.29 0 0.00
191 Eritrea 855.56 0 0.00
192 Cayman Islands 853.37 0 0.00
193 Aruba 848.83 0 0.00
194 Djibouti 848.18 0 0.00
195 Laos 846.57 -2 -5.07
196 São Tomé and Príncipe 846.09 0 0.00
197 Tonga 835.64 0 0.00
198 Guam 823.08 0 0.00
199 Gibraltar 822.56 -1 -4.95
200 Somalia 818.96 0 0.00
201 Timor Leste 811.59 0 -4.27
202 Pakistan 809.10 0 -3.64
203 Bahamas 807.36 0 0.00
203 Sri Lanka 807.00 0 -3.83
205 Seychelles 804.93 0 0.00
206 Turks and Caicos Islands 803.98 0 0.00
207 Liechtenstein 800.10 0 -2.07
208 US Virgin Islands 779.71 0 0.00
209 British Virgin Islands 768.47 0 0.00
210 Anguilla 758.52 0 0.00
211 San Marino 728.94 0 -1.35
From this we can then determine that the top seeds will be:
Second seeds would then be (Germany by less than 2 FIFA ranking points!):
Third seeds would then be:
Finally, the fourth bracket would have the remaining teams (with the UEFA playoff winners and Intercontinental playoff winners only being determined in March 2026, several months after the finals draw which is expected to be held in December 2025):
It already looks like for the top seeds the only uncertainties are Belgium and Italy, and possible top seeds are Germany, Uruguay and Morocco. Germany's fate will likely be sealed in June during the 2024/2025 UEFA Nations League finals that they host, and Italy will be wanting to avoid slip ups in their home and away matches against their nearest 2026 World Cup Qualifying Group I challenger Norway. For Uruguay and Morocco it shouldn't depend on their own matches anymore, but rather whether Belgium and/or Italy lose points from matches they are expected to win during the qualifiers.
