Following the draw made this week I tuned my software to be able to predict a tournament. Here's the results.
NOTE 1: as Guadeloupe isn't a FIFA member and I use FIFA rankings for predictions, I created this simulation with a presumptive ranking of 1150, which seems realistic.
NOTE 2: for the matchup possibilities I took the 10 most likely ones as there's more combinations possible.
Group A
Country 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Mexico 65.95% 26.97% 5.99% 1.09%
Costa Rica 29.27% 49.60% 15.80% 5.33%
Surinam 2.59% 11.93% 39.44% 46.04%
Dominican Republic 2.19% 11.50% 38.77% 47.54%
Costa Rica 29.27% 49.60% 15.80% 5.33%
Surinam 2.59% 11.93% 39.44% 46.04%
Dominican Republic 2.19% 11.50% 38.77% 47.54%
Group B
Country 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Canada 52.48% 24.94% 14.53% 8.05%
Honduras 16.86% 26.83% 29.10% 27.21%
El Salvador 17.16% 25.26% 27.97% 29.61%
Curaçao 13.50% 22.97% 28.40% 35.13%
Curaçao 13.50% 22.97% 28.40% 35.13%
Group C
Country 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Panama 51.62% 28.45% 13.99% 5.94%
Jamaica 30.48% 34.20% 22.77% 12.55%
Guatemala 10.46% 20.54% 32.97% 36.03%
Guadeloupe 7.44% 16.81% 30.27% 45.48%
Group D
Country 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
United States 65.59% 22.62% 8.47% 3.32%
Saudi Arabia 18.55% 35.51% 27.90% 18.04%
Haiti 9.50% 24.05% 33.44% 33.01%
Trinidad and Tobago 6.36% 17.82% 30.19% 45.63%
Quarter Finalist
Mexico 92.92%
United States 88.21%
Panama 80.07%
Costa Rica 78.87%
Canada 77.42%
Jamaica 64.68%
Saudi Arabia 54.06%
Honduras 43.69%
El Salvador 42.42%
Curaçao 36.47%
Haiti 33.55%
Guatemala 31.00%
Guadeloupe 24.25%
Trinidad and Tobago 24.18%
Surinam 14.52%
Dominican Republic 13.69%
Semi Finalist
United States 59.14%
Mexico 58.95%
Panama 48.86%
Canada 47.43%
Costa Rica 36.62%
Jamaica 33.84%
Saudi Arabia 22.23%
Honduras 19.20%
El Salvador 17.88%
Curaçao 14.62%
Haiti 11.00%
Guatemala 10.75%
Guadeloupe 7.42%
Trinidad and Tobago 6.73%
Surinam 2.71%
Dominican Republic 2.62%
Finalist
United States 41.37%
Mexico 39.64%
Panama 22.63%
Canada 22.00%
Costa Rica 20.37%
Jamaica 12.79%
Saudi Arabia 11.44%
Honduras 6.88%
El Salvador 5.34%
Haiti 4.68%
Curaçao 4.62%
Guatemala 2.94%
Trinidad and Tobago 2.27%
Guadeloupe 1.53%
Surinam 0.78%
Dominican Republic 0.72%
Winner
United States 27.04%
Mexico 23.32%
Canada 11.12%
Panama 11.07%
Costa Rica 8.84%
Jamaica 4.83%
Saudi Arabia 4.67%
Honduras 2.15%
El Salvador 1.82%
Haiti 1.52%
Curaçao 1.44%
Guatemala 0.89%
Trinidad and Tobago 0.58%
Guadeloupe 0.38%
Surinam 0.17%
Dominican Republic 0.16%
Quarter Finals
1A v 2D
Mexico v Saudi Arabia 23.60%
Mexico v Haiti 15.61%
Mexico v United States 15.16%
Mexico v Trinidad and Tobago 11.58%
Costa Rica v Saudi Arabia 10.11%
Costa Rica v Haiti 7.25%
Costa Rica v United States 6.43%
Costa Rica v Trinidad and Tobago 5.48%
Surinam v Saudi Arabia 1.04%
Dominican Republic v Saudi Arabia 0.76%
1B v 2C
Canada v Jamaica 18.12%
Canada v Panama 14.57%
Canada v Guatemala 10.66%
Canada v Guadeloupe 9.13%
El Salvador v Jamaica 6.06%
Honduras v Jamaica 5.45%
Honduras v Panama 4.97%
El Salvador v Panama 4.70%
Curaçao v Jamaica 4.57%
Curaçao v Panama 4.21%
1C v 2B
Panama v Honduras 13.60%
Panama v Canada 13.14%
Panama v El Salvador 12.88%
Panama v Curaçao 12.00%
Jamaica v Honduras 8.50%
Jamaica v El Salvador 7.63%
Jamaica v Canada 7.52%
Jamaica v Curaçao 6.83%
Guatemala v El Salvador 2.90%
Guatemala v Honduras 2.70%
1D v 2A
United States v Costa Rica 32.50%
United States v Mexico 17.91%
Saudi Arabia v Costa Rica 9.14%
United States v Dominican Republic 7.73%
United States v Surinam 7.45%
Saudi Arabia v Mexico 4.83%
Haiti v Costa Rica 4.77%
Trinidad and Tobago v Costa Rica 3.19%
Saudi Arabia v Surinam 2.51%
Haiti v Mexico 2.35%
Combined
United States v Costa Rica 38.93%
United States v Mexico 33.07%
Mexico v Saudi Arabia 28.43%
Canada v Panama 27.71%
Canada v Jamaica 25.64%
Costa Rica v Saudi Arabia 19.25%
Panama v Honduras 18.57%
Mexico v Haiti 17.96%
Panama v El Salvador 17.58%
Panama v Curaçao 16.21%
Semi Finals
(1A v 2D) v (1C v 2B)
Mexico v Panama 15.23%
Mexico v Jamaica 7.99%
Mexico v Canada 5.72%
Costa Rica v Panama 5.67%
Mexico v El Salvador 4.33%
Mexico v Honduras 4.27%
United States v Panama 4.22%
Saudi Arabia v Panama 4.13%
Mexico v Curaçao 3.91%
Costa Rica v Jamaica 2.98%
(1D v 2A) v (1B v 2C)
United States v Canada 15.74%
United States v Panama 7.39%
United States v Jamaica 7.30%
Costa Rica v Canada 6.80%
Mexico v Canada 4.77%
United States v Honduras 3.91%
United States v El Salvador 3.52%
Costa Rica v Jamaica 3.19%
Saudi Arabia v Canada 3.13%
United States v Curaçao 2.90%
Combined
United States v Canada 17.73%
Mexico v Panama 17.58%
United States v Panama 11.61%
Mexico v Canada 10.49%
Mexico v Jamaica 10.30%
United States v Jamaica 9.69%
Canada v Costa Rica 9.08%
Panama v Costa Rica 8.47%
Costa Rica v Jamaica 6.17%
Panama v Saudi Arabia 5.68%
Final
United States v Mexico 12.69%
Mexico v Costa Rica 6.81%
United States v Panama 6.11%
Mexico v Canada 5.79%
United States v Costa Rica 4.44%
United States v Saudi Arabia 4.07%
United States v Canada 3.87%
Mexico v Panama 3.81%
Panama v Canada 3.29%
United States v Jamaica 2.76%
No comments:
Post a Comment