Especially for Ted, here's the simulation update to the UEFA 2026 World Cup Qualifying groups following the publication of the April 2025 FIFA Ranking and this time adding the chances of qualifying for the playoffs via the 2024/2025 UEFA Nations League.
NOTE: The "Pl-off" column signifies the percentage chance to qualify for the playoff round, the "Q-or-P" signifies the percentage change to qualify directly or for a playoff place, and the "NQDnorP" specifies the chance of not qualifying directly nor qualifying for at least a playoff place (not for "not" qualifying for the finals, but I'll work on that also because I guess with this determination it's now also possible to randomly draw playoff paths after seeding the qualifiers according to the relative FIFA Ranking after these qualifying matches have been played, excluding any friendlies though as that's going to complicate matters further).
Group A
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-or-P NQDnorP
Germany 68.33% 22.18% 7.61% 1.88% 31.67% 100.00% 0.00%
Slovakia 22.04% 42.12% 23.44% 12.40% 42.12% 64.16% 35.84%
Luxembourg 5.78% 18.98% 29.83% 45.41% 18.98% 24.76% 75.24%
Northern Ireland 3.85% 16.72% 39.12% 40.31% 20.38% 24.23% 75.77%
Group B
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-or-P NQDnorP
Switzerland 48.85% 30.11% 16.14% 4.90% 30.11% 78.96% 21.04%
Sweden 30.68% 33.79% 25.93% 9.60% 44.66% 75.34% 24.66%
Slovenia 17.43% 27.97% 37.15% 17.45% 27.97% 45.40% 54.60%
Kosovo 3.04% 8.13% 20.78% 68.05% 8.13% 11.17% 88.83%
Group C
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-or-P NQDnorP
Denmark 49.61% 29.69% 16.72% 3.98% 29.69% 79.30% 20.70%
Greece 25.07% 32.19% 31.55% 11.19% 32.19% 57.26% 42.74%
Scotland 23.12% 31.35% 33.29% 12.24% 31.35% 54.47% 45.53%
Belarus 2.20% 6.77% 18.44% 72.59% 6.77% 8.97% 91.03%
Group D
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-or-P NQDnorP
France 83.61% 13.98% 2.24% 0.17% 16.39% 100.00% 0.00%
Ukraine 13.27% 56.52% 24.47% 5.74% 56.52% 69.79% 30.21%
Iceland 2.75% 23.62% 50.74% 22.89% 23.62% 26.37% 73.63%
Azerbaijan 0.37% 5.88% 22.55% 71.20% 5.88% 6.25% 93.75%
Group E
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-or-P NQDnorP
Spain 80.94% 15.15% 3.33% 0.58% 19.06% 100.00% 0.00%
Türkiye 13.67% 49.41% 24.88% 12.04% 49.41% 63.08% 36.92%
Georgia 3.47% 20.36% 38.83% 37.34% 20.36% 23.83% 76.17%
Bulgaria 1.92% 15.08% 32.96% 50.04% 15.08% 17.00% 83.00%
Group F
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-or-P NQDnorP
Portugal 70.95% 20.77% 6.90% 1.38% 29.05% 100.00% 0.00%
Hungary 18.99% 44.06% 26.81% 10.14% 44.06% 63.05% 36.95%
Ireland 8.36% 25.64% 41.20% 24.80% 25.64% 34.00% 66.00%
Armenia 1.70% 9.53% 25.09% 63.68% 9.53% 11.23% 88.77%
Group G
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-or-P NQDnorP
Netherlands 73.65% 21.60% 4.50% 0.25% 0.00% 21.60% 95.25% 4.75%
Poland 21.80% 56.56% 20.13% 1.40% 0.11% 56.56% 78.36% 21.64%
Finland 4.50% 20.98% 64.13% 9.47% 0.92% 20.98% 25.48% 74.52%
Lithuania 0.05% 0.75% 8.80% 59.64% 30.76% 0.75% 0.80% 99.20%
Malta 0.00% 0.11% 2.44% 29.24% 68.21% 0.11% 0.11% 99.89%
Group H
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-or-P NQDnorP
Austria 56.05% 24.33% 16.35% 3.26% 0.01% 24.33% 80.38% 19.62%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 24.28% 38.69% 32.53% 4.45% 0.05% 38.69% 62.97% 37.03%
Romania 18.84% 33.44% 38.40% 9.24% 0.08% 61.19% 80.03% 19.97%
Cyprus 0.83% 3.53% 12.62% 79.98% 3.04% 3.53% 4.36% 95.64%
San Marino 0.00% 0.01% 0.10% 3.07% 96.82% 0.06% 0.06% 99.94%
Group I
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-or-P NQDnorP
Italy 68.90% 26.53% 4.01% 0.51% 0.05% 26.53% 95.43% 4.57%
Norway 29.20% 59.99% 9.03% 1.67% 0.11% 70.67% 99.87% 0.13%
Israel 1.59% 9.73% 57.81% 25.51% 5.36% 9.73% 11.32% 88.68%
Estonia 0.30% 3.55% 25.54% 58.31% 12.30% 3.55% 3.85% 96.15%
Moldova 0.01% 0.20% 3.61% 14.00% 82.18% 1.05% 1.06% 98.94%
Group J
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-or-P NQDnorP
Belgium 72.12% 20.24% 6.71% 0.93% 0.00% 20.24% 92.36% 7.64%
Wales 21.76% 51.75% 23.10% 3.33% 0.06% 76.88% 98.64% 1.36%
North Macedonia 5.58% 23.16% 51.23% 19.86% 0.17% 34.97% 40.55% 59.45%
Kazakhstan 0.54% 4.83% 18.89% 73.66% 2.08% 4.83% 5.37% 94.63%
Liechtenstein 0.00% 0.02% 0.07% 2.22% 97.69% 0.02% 0.02% 99.98%
Group K
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-or-P NQDnorP
England 88.25% 10.78% 0.95% 0.02% 0.00% 11.75% 100.00% 0.00%
Serbia 9.71% 54.62% 28.67% 6.23% 0.77% 54.62% 64.33% 35.67%
Albania 1.95% 30.20% 51.45% 15.33% 1.07% 30.20% 32.15% 67.85%
Latvia 0.09% 4.22% 17.82% 66.47% 11.40% 4.22% 4.31% 95.69%
Andorra 0.00% 0.18% 1.11% 11.95% 86.76% 0.18% 0.18% 99.82%
Group L
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-or-P NQDnorP
Croatia 64.97% 26.14% 8.44% 0.45% 0.00% 26.14% 91.11% 8.89%
Czechia 27.18% 47.72% 23.98% 1.11% 0.01% 68.29% 95.47% 4.53%
Montenegro 7.80% 25.49% 60.14% 6.44% 0.13% 25.49% 33.29% 66.71%
Faroe Islands 0.05% 0.64% 7.01% 73.75% 18.55% 0.64% 0.69% 99.31%
Gibraltar 0.00% 0.01% 0.43% 18.25% 81.31% 0.01% 0.01% 99.99%
Czechia 27.18% 47.72% 23.98% 1.11% 0.01% 68.29% 95.47% 4.53%
Montenegro 7.80% 25.49% 60.14% 6.44% 0.13% 25.49% 33.29% 66.71%
Faroe Islands 0.05% 0.64% 7.01% 73.75% 18.55% 0.64% 0.69% 99.31%
Gibraltar 0.00% 0.01% 0.43% 18.25% 81.31% 0.01% 0.01% 99.99%
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