Qualifying Groups
With this post I've now also included the playoffs in the simulation, and as such I can give a total qualifying percentage for each country.
NOTE: The "Pl-off" column suggests the chance to have to play the playoff, the "Q-Totl" suggest the total chance to qualify either as group winner or as playoff path winner, and the "NotQual" column suggest the chances of not qualifying, including via the playoffs.
Group A
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Germany 69.34% 21.27% 7.18% 2.21% 30.66% 82.40% 17.60%
Slovakia 21.05% 43.53% 23.50% 11.92% 43.53% 31.96% 68.04%
Luxembourg 5.73% 19.23% 30.96% 44.08% 19.23% 7.62% 92.38%
Northern Ireland 3.88% 15.97% 38.36% 41.79% 85.02% 13.45% 86.55%
Group B
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Switzerland 49.54% 29.26% 16.42% 4.78% 29.26% 61.00% 39.00%
Sweden 29.88% 34.12% 26.39% 9.61% 69.47% 49.20% 50.80%
Slovenia 17.91% 27.98% 35.98% 18.13% 27.98% 24.29% 75.71%
Kosovo 2.67% 8.64% 21.21% 67.48% 8.64% 3.39% 96.61%
Group C
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Denmark 50.54% 28.87% 16.80% 3.79% 29.59% 62.06% 37.94%
Greece 24.19% 32.74% 31.54% 11.53% 32.74% 33.00% 67.00%
Scotland 23.11% 31.74% 33.02% 12.13% 33.09% 32.01% 67.99%
Belarus 2.16% 6.65% 18.64% 72.55% 6.65% 2.77% 97.23%
Group D
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
France 83.99% 13.62% 2.24% 0.15% 16.01% 93.92% 6.08%
Ukraine 12.81% 55.54% 24.78% 6.96% 55.45% 32.27% 67.73%
Iceland 2.78% 24.33% 49.06% 23.83% 24.33% 6.52% 94.48%
Azerbaijan 0.42% 6.60% 23.92% 69.06% 6.60% 0.80% 99.20%
Group E
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Spain 81.56% 14.62% 3.24% 0.58% 18.44% 92.38% 7.62%
Türkiye 12.67% 49.19% 25.61% 12.53% 49.19% 29.21% 70.79%
Georgia 3.67% 21.34% 38.58% 36.41% 21.34% 6.71% 93.29%
Bulgaria 2.10% 14.85% 32.57% 50.48% 14.85% 3.73% 96.27%
Group F
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Portugal 72.00% 20.53% 6.13% 1.34% 28.00% 86.50% 13.50%
Hungary 18.31% 43.70% 27.38% 10.61% 44.01% 32.12% 67.88%
Ireland 8.06% 26.54% 41.13% 24.27% 26.54% 12.66% 87.34%
Armenia 1.63% 9.23% 25.36% 63.78% 9.23% 2.42% 97.58%
Group G
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Netherlands 73.50% 21.89% 4.33% 0.28% 0.00% 22.08% 84.34% 15.66%
Poland 22.38% 56.02% 19.93% 1.64% 0.03% 56.06% 37.92% 62.08%
Finland 4.04% 21.06% 63.26% 10.82% 0.82% 21.06% 7.47% 92.53%
Lithuania 0.07% 0.84% 9.58% 58.72% 30.79% 0.84% 0.11% 99.89%
Malta 0.01% 0.19% 2.90% 28.54% 68.36% 0.19% 0.01% 99.99%
Group H
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Austria 56.65% 25.08% 15.55% 2.69% 0.03% 25.08% 65.36% 34.64%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 24.63% 38.85% 32.20% 4.20% 0.12% 38.85% 28.56% 71.44%
Romania 18.05% 32.59% 39.06% 10.19% 0.11% 81.84% 36.90% 63.10%
Cyprus 0.67% 3.45% 13.04% 79.66% 3.18% 3.45% 0.82% 99.18%
San Marino 0.00% 0.03% 0.15% 3.26% 96.56% 25.01% 0.01% 99.99%
Group I
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Italy 68.49% 27.16% 3.74% 0.59% 0.02% 27.32% 81.91% 18.09%
Norway 29.61% 58.44% 10.19% 1.75% 0.01% 70.39% 45.51% 54.49%
Israel 1.62% 10.37% 58.37% 24.37% 5.27% 10.52% 2.87% 97.13%
Estonia 0.28% 3.84% 23.81% 59.00% 13.07% 3.84% 0.47% 99.53%
Moldova 0.00% 0.19% 3.89% 14.29% 81.63% 61.15% 1.17% 98.83%
Group J
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Belgium 71.03% 20.88% 7.03% 1.05% 0.01% 21.16% 81.64% 18.36%
Wales 22.48% 51.24% 22.34% 3.91% 0.03% 77.52% 45.65% 54.35%
North Macedonia 5.73% 23.17% 51.29% 19.59% 0.22% 91.77% 16.84% 83.16%
Kazakhstan 0.76% 4.71% 19.31% 73.06% 2.16% 4.71% 1.08% 98.92%
Liechtenstein 0.00% 0.00% 0.03% 2.39% 97.58% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00%
Group K
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
England 88.03% 10.91% 1.04% 0.02% 0.00% 11.97% 94.18% 5.82%
Serbia 9.87% 54.47% 28.42% 6.63% 0.61% 54.95% 26.86% 73.14%
Albania 2.04% 30.52% 51.65% 14.88% 0.91% 30.52% 6.73% 93.27%
Latvia 0.06% 3.99% 17.85% 66.86% 11.24% 3.99% 0.18% 99.82%
Andorra 0.00% 0.11% 1.04% 11.61% 87.24% 0.11% 0.00% 100.00%
Group L
Winner Run-up Third Fourth Fifth Pl-off Q-Totl NotQual
Croatia 64.61% 26.23% 8.55% 0.59% 0.02% 26.66% 76.31% 23.69%
Croatia 64.61% 26.23% 8.55% 0.59% 0.02% 26.66% 76.31% 23.69%
Czechia 27.04% 47.62% 23.98% 1.36% 0.00% 72.96% 43.04% 56.96%
Montenegro 8.25% 25.33% 60.15% 6.10% 0.17% 25.33% 11.54% 88.46%
Faroe Islands 0.10% 0.78% 6.78% 73.58% 18.76% 0.78% 0.13% 99.87%
Gibraltar 0.00% 0.04% 0.54% 18.37% 81.05% 0.04% 0.00% 100.00%
Montenegro 8.25% 25.33% 60.15% 6.10% 0.17% 25.33% 11.54% 88.46%
Faroe Islands 0.10% 0.78% 6.78% 73.58% 18.76% 0.78% 0.13% 99.87%
Gibraltar 0.00% 0.04% 0.54% 18.37% 81.05% 0.04% 0.00% 100.00%
Playoffs
Likelihood
The following shows how likely a country ends up in the playoffs.
NOTE: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, and "Playoff" suggests the percentage chance of qualifying for the playoff round.
FRnk Grp Playoff
North Macedonia 67 J 91.77%
Northern Ireland 71 A 85.02%
Romania 45 H 81.84%
Wales 29 J 77.52%
Czechia 39 L 72.96%
Norway 38 I 70.39%
Sweden 28 B 69.47%
Moldova 154 I 61.15%
Poland 34 G 56.06%
Ukraine 25 D 55.45%
Serbia 31 K 54.95%
Türkiye 27 E 49.19%
Hungary 37 F 44.01%
Slovakia 46 A 43.53%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 70 H 38.85%
Scotland 44 C 33.09%
Greece 40 C 32.74%
Germany 10 A 30.66%
Albania 66 K 30.52%
Denmark 21 C 29.59%
Switzerland 20 B 29.26%
Portugal 7 F 28.00%
Slovenia 51 B 27.98%
Italy 9 I 27.32%
Croatia 11 L 26.66%
Ireland 60 F 26.54%
Montenegro 73 L 25.33%
Austria 22 H 25.08%
San Marino 210 H 25.01%
Iceland 74 D 24.33%
Netherlands 6 G 22.08%
Georgia 68 E 21.34%
Belgium 8 J 21.16%
Finland 69 G 21.06%
Luxembourg 91 A 19.23%
Spain 2 E 18.44%
France 3 D 16.01%
Bulgaria 85 E 14.85%
England 4 K 11.97%
Israel 78 I 10.52%
Armenia 102 F 9.23%
Kosovo 97 B 8.64%
Belarus 98 C 6.65%
Azerbaijan 119 D 6.60%
Kazakhstan 113 J 4.71%
Latvia 138 K 3.99%
Estonia 121 I 3.84%
Cyprus 129 H 3.45%
Lithuania 143 G 0.84%
Faroe Islands 141 L 0.78%
Malta 169 G 0.19%
Andorra 173 K 0.11%
Gibraltar 196 L 0.04%
Liechtenstein 205 J 0.00%Results
The following shows if a country ends up in the playoffs, what their chances are of winning in each round.
NOTE: "FRnk" represents the current FIFA Ranking, "Grp" is the group the country is allocated in, "Win-Fin" suggests the chances to win the final, "Lose-Fi" suggests the chance to lose the final, "Win-Sem" suggests the chance to win the semi final, "Lose-Sem" suggests the chance to lose the semi, and "Playoff" is the percentage chance that the country ends up playing in the playoff round.
NOTE: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.
FRnk Grp Win-Fin Lose-Fi Win-Sem Lose-Sem Playoff
France 3 D 62.02% 20.36% 82.39% 17.61% 16.01%
Spain 2 E 58.68% 21.26% 79.93% 20.07% 18.44%
Portugal 7 F 51.79% 23.93% 75.71% 24.29% 28.00%
England 4 K 51.38% 25.65% 77.03% 22.97% 11.97%
Belgium 8 J 50.14% 27.74% 77.88% 22.12% 21.16%
Italy 9 I 49.12% 26.39% 75.51% 24.49% 27.32%
Netherlands 6 G 49.09% 27.22% 76.31% 23.69% 22.08%
Croatia 11 L 43.89% 28.69% 72.58% 27.42% 26.66%
Germany 10 A 42.60% 25.93% 68.53% 31.47% 30.66%
Switzerland 20 B 39.17% 29.46% 68.63% 31.37% 29.26%
Denmark 21 C 38.93% 29.64% 68.57% 31.43% 29.59%
Ukraine 25 D 35.09% 30.60% 65.70% 34.30% 55.45%
Austria 22 H 34.73% 31.02% 65.75% 34.25% 25.08%
Türkiye 27 E 33.62% 31.53% 65.16% 34.84% 49.19%
Hungary 37 F 31.38% 31.29% 62.67% 37.33% 44.01%
Serbia 31 K 30.92% 30.61% 61.53% 38.47% 54.95%
Wales 29 J 29.89% 28.29% 58.18% 41.82% 77.52%
Sweden 28 B 27.81% 27.65% 55.46% 44.54% 69.47%
Poland 34 G 27.72% 31.81% 59.53% 40.47% 56.06%
Greece 40 C 26.91% 30.33% 57.24% 42.76% 32.74%
Scotland 44 C 26.90% 27.92% 54.82% 45.18% 33.09%
Slovakia 46 A 25.06% 29.47% 54.54% 45.46% 43.53%
Romania 45 H 23.03% 25.94% 48.97% 51.03% 81.84%
Slovenia 51 B 22.80% 25.70% 48.50% 51.50% 27.98%
Norway 38 I 22.59% 28.11% 50.70% 49.30% 70.39%
Czechia 39 L 21.93% 26.15% 48.08% 51.92% 72.96%
Ireland 60 F 17.33% 25.06% 42.39% 57.61% 26.54%
Finland 69 G 16.29% 21.04% 37.32% 62.68% 21.06%
Iceland 74 D 15.37% 21.50% 36.87% 63.13% 24.33%
Albania 66 K 15.37% 23.30% 38.66% 61.34% 30.52%
Georgia 68 E 14.25% 21.09% 35.33% 64.67% 21.34%
Montenegro 73 L 12.99% 19.86% 32.85% 67.15% 25.33%
North Macedonia 67 J 12.11% 20.89% 33.00% 67.00% 91.77%
Israel 78 I 11.88% 21.01% 32.89% 67.11% 10.52%
Northern Ireland 71 A 11.26% 21.09% 32.35% 67.65% 85.02%
Bulgaria 85 E 10.98% 19.73% 30.71% 69.29% 14.85%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 70 H 10.12% 19.90% 30.01% 69.99% 38.85%
Luxembourg 91 A 9.83% 19.08% 28.91% 71.09% 19.23%
Belarus 98 C 9.17% 18.65% 27.82% 72.18% 6.65%
Armenia 102 F 8.56% 16.58% 25.14% 74.86% 9.23%
Kosovo 97 B 8.33% 19.56% 27.89% 72.11% 8.64%
Kazakhstan 113 J 6.79% 17.62% 24.42% 75.58% 4.71%
Azerbaijan 119 D 5.76% 17.42% 23.18% 76.82% 6.60%
Estonia 121 I 4.95% 17.71% 22.66% 77.34% 3.84%
Lithuania 143 G 4.76% 7.14% 11.90% 88.10% 0.84%
Cyprus 129 H 4.35% 16.81% 21.16% 78.84% 3.45%
Faroe Islands 141 L 3.85% 16.67% 20.51% 79.49% 0.78%
Latvia 138 K 3.01% 13.28% 16.29% 83.71% 3.99%
Moldova 154 I 1.91% 10.24% 12.15% 87.85% 61.15%
San Marino 210 H 0.04% 2.20% 2.24% 97.76% 25.01%
Andorra 173 K 0.00% 9.09% 9.09% 90.91% 0.11%
Gibraltar 196 L 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 100.00% 0.04%
Malta 169 G 0.00% 15.79% 15.79% 84.21% 0.19%
Liechtenstein 205 J n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.00%
Overall Qualifying
This table is interesting because it shows the relative randomness of the group draw and the effect of using the 2024/2025 UEFA Nations League Overall Ranking, giving Moldova and San Marino bigger changes to qualify. Other notables include Bosnia and Herzegovina and Luxembourg whose chances are currently higher than would be expected, and for countries like Ukraine, Türkiye and Israel the chances are smaller.
NOTE: "FRnk" is the current FIFA ranking of the team, "Grp" is the qualifying group the country is allocated to, "Qual" suggests the percentage chance to qualify, either by winner the group or the playoff path, and "NotQual" suggests the percentage change to not qualify.
NOTE: this assumes playoffs played at neutral venues, and it doesn't take into account any prohibited clashes.
FRnk Grp Qual NotQual
England 4 K 94.18% 5.82%
France 3 D 93.92% 6.08%Spain 2 E 92.38% 7.62%
Portugal 7 F 86.50% 13.50%
Netherlands 6 G 84.34% 15.66%
Germany 10 A 82.40% 17.60%
Italy 9 I 81.91% 18.09%
Belgium 8 J 81.64% 18.36%
Croatia 11 L 76.31% 23.69%
Austria 22 H 65.36% 34.64%
Denmark 21 C 62.06% 37.94%
Switzerland 20 B 61.00% 39.00%Sweden 28 B 49.20% 50.80%Wales 29 J 45.65% 54.35%Norway 38 I 45.51% 54.49%Czechia 39 L 43.04% 56.96%Poland 34 G 37.92% 62.08%Romania 45 H 36.90% 63.10%Greece 40 C 33.00% 67.00%Ukraine 25 D 32.27% 67.73%Hungary 37 F 32.12% 67.88%Scotland 44 C 32.01% 67.99%Slovakia 46 A 31.96% 68.04%Türkiye 27 E 29.21% 70.79%Bosnia and Herzegovina 70 H 28.56% 71.44%Serbia 31 K 26.86% 73.14%Slovenia 51 B 24.29% 75.71%North Macedonia 67 J 16.84% 83.16%Northern Ireland 71 A 13.45% 86.55%Ireland 60 F 12.66% 87.34%Montenegro 73 L 11.54% 88.46%Luxembourg 91 A 7.62% 92.38%Finland 69 G 7.47% 92.53%Albania 66 K 6.73% 93.27%Georgia 68 E 6.71% 93.29%Iceland 74 D 6.52% 93.48%Bulgaria 85 E 3.73% 96.27%Kosovo 97 B 3.39% 96.61%Israel 78 I 2.87% 97.13%Belarus 98 C 2.77% 97.23%Armenia 102 F 2.42% 97.58%Moldova 154 I 1.17% 98.83%Kazakhstan 113 J 1.08% 98.92%Cyprus 129 H 0.82% 99.18%Azerbaijan 119 D 0.80% 99.20%Estonia 121 I 0.47% 99.53%Latvia 138 K 0.18% 99.82%Faroe Islands 141 L 0.13% 99.87%Lithuania 143 G 0.11% 99.89%Malta 169 G 0.01% 99.99%San Marino 210 H 0.01% 99.99%Andorra 173 K 0.00% 100.00%Gibraltar 196 L 0.00% 100.00%Liechtenstein 205 J 0.00% 100.00%
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